Precipitation Outlook for Central American Countries and The Caribbean ( May to July 2012)

The precipitation outlook is issued in the form of a map of tercile probabilities showing regions having homogeneous forecast probabilities for below, near and above normal precipitation. The terciles separate the possible outcomes into three categories (terciles) based on the historical precipitation record. The probabilities add up to 100.

. Above Normal-Wettest Third of the Record

. Near Normal- Middle third of the Record

. Below Normal- Driest Third of the Record

Forecast Below: Prepared  By Central American Countries at the precipitation outlook forum

The result for Belize from the Central American and Caribbean Forum

35% likelihood of above normal rainfall

40% likelihood of normal rainfall

25% likelihood of below Normal rainfall

May to July 2012, rainfall is predicted to likely be close to normal across the Caribbean. Nonetheless, a slight tendency is noted towards above normal in the extreme northern and western portions.

For Belize the month of May is still the dry season  for  much of the country except for  the south where the rains starts by the  middle of the month and works it way  northwards  to start the rain season in June for the country, which also marks the onset of the Atlantic Basin Hurricane season.  In both the Central America and the  Caribbean precipitation  outlook Belize shows a  higher chance of getting rainfall in the normal Climatologcal range. A slight tendency to above normal is also possible.

ENSO Conditions:

Probabilistic ENSO Forecast for May-June-July (MJJ):

(Provided by the International Research Institute for Climate and Society)

7% La Nina

74% Neutral

19% El Nino

Caribbean Sea and Ambient Temperatures:

Air temperature at 2 m should be trending from slightly above normal down to slightly below normal as one moves from north to south across the region in the forecast period. This forecasted north to south air temperature gradient is mainly the effect of a similar sea surface temperature (SST) gradient. Current SST observations and predictions further suggest that surface waters in the region will be cooler than in past two years, possibly suppressing some convective activity this time around.

Climatologically the impact of ENSO for the western Caribbean (Belize) is for drier conditions during El Nino and wetter conditions during La Nina and normal during the neutral phase. Summary of the rainfall data April 2012 for Belize shows above normal for most of the country. Twelve stations reported rainfall above their normal

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorlogical Service of Belize and  The Caribbean Institute for Meteorology & Hydrology makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.