Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • For the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea, and the Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED OVER CENTRAL AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGERY SHOWED THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY MOVED OVER THE COUNTRY FROM EAST TO WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATED THE UPPER LEVELS WERE DRY OVER BELIZE AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. THE 23Z TPW IMAGE SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE WAS RELATIVELY HIGH OVER THE AREA WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND 50MM BUT WITH LOWER VALUES OFFSHORE. NO SOUNDING WAS AVAILABLE.

SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE W'RN CARIBBEAN THAT EXTENDED FROM W'RN CUBA TO W'RN PANAMA. THE CLOSE PROXIMITY OF THIS WAVE SUPPORTED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS  AROUND BELIZE. A 1018MB HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS ANCHORED OVER THE W'RN GULF OF MEXICO AND RIDGING MAINTAINED A LIGHT TO MODERATE E'LY SFC FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AT THE UPPER LEVELS THE FLOW REMAINED E'LY DUE TO RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT.

GFS SUGGESTS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT OVER THE SOUTH THEN REMAIN LOW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE SFC FLOW IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FROM THE EAST WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO VEER TO THE SE. ALOFT THE FLOW IS TO REMAIN E'LY THROUGH TOMORROW THEN BACK TO THE ENE BY MONDAY. THE PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO BECOME NEUTRAL. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY FOR THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE ELSEWHERE. THEREAFTER A DECLINE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED.  

GFS AND NAM SHOW CONSENSUS FOR A DECREASE IN RAINFALL TREND OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  GFS SHOWS 0.10-0.25INS./3HRS OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT WHILE NAM SHOWS 0.01-0.10INS./3HRS THEN BOTH SHOW LOW AMTS FOR THE SOUTH TOMORROW MORNING AND A FURTHER DECREASE THROUGH TO MONDAY. 

 

PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS FOR MAINLY FAIR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.
Winds Seas Waves
East | 10-20 kts Choppy 3-5 ft

Forecaster: Smith, Michelle

Last Updated: Sat, Jul 21, 2018 | 07:30 PM