Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
  • Residents living in flood-prone areas in the south are advised to be on the alert for the possibility of localized and flash flooding.
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • AT 3 AM: -Tropical Storm Kirk was centered near latitude 9.1 North, longitude 28.0 West. Kirk was moving W at 18 mph with maximum sustained windsof 40 mph. -The center of Tropical Depression Eleven was located near latitude 14.5 North, longitude 55.0 West. The depression was moving toward the NW at 6 mph and maximum sustained winds are near 30 mph. -NO THREAT TO BELIZE AT THIS TIME. Elsewhere, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

SKES WERE CLOUDY OVERNIGHT AND THIS MORNING WITH A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN  AND THUNDERSTOMS MOSTLY OVER SOUTHERN AREAS INTO THIS MORNING. SHOWERS/ISOL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED ALONG THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COAST. SHOWERS ELSEWHERE WERE ISOLATED. THE HIGHEST RAINFALL AMOUNT SINCE MIDNIGHT WAS RECORDED AT PLACENCIA WITH 52.8MM WHILE PUNTA GORDA HAD 10.4MM AND HERE AT THE AIRPORT RECORDED 4.2MM. THE SATELLITE IMAGERY VISIBLE AND IR SHOWED CLOUDY SKIES WITH DENCE CIRRUS CLOUDS. DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WERE JUST OFFSHORE BZE. THE MOISTURE LEVELS AREAS THE AREA CONTINUE HIGH AS THE PWAT IMAGE HAD VALUES BETWEEB 55-60MM. THE SOUNDING 12Z OBSERVED 59.14MM IN A MODERATELY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH CAPE 1863 j.kg, KI 31.7 AND LIFT -4.54. THIS HELPED SUPPORT THE SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WEST OF THE AREA THAT HAS BEEN PERSISTENT OVER THE PAST COUPLE DAYS.

THE SURFACE ANALYSIS  06Z SHOWED THE TROPICAL WAVE THAT HAS BEEN INFLUENCING OUR WEATHER ALONG THE WESTERN BORDER. A SURFACE TROUGH WAS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. THE PANAMA LOW ALONG WITH THE MONSOON TROUGH SUPPORTED SHOWERS IN THE AREA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SEEN EAST OF THE WINDSWARD ISLANDS THAT IS ASSOCIATED WITH TD 11 IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TODAY, A TROPICAL WAVE WAS JUST BEHIND THIS LOW. ANOTHER BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA WAS CENTERED NEAR 28N67W COUPLED WITH A SURFACE TROUGH. THE SURFACE WINDS HAS BEEN A LIGHT NW'LY FLOW WHILE THE LOW LEVEL WIND PATTERN WAS NE'LY. AT THE MID LEVELS A SE'LY FLOW PREVAILED.  WHILE AT THE UPPER THE WINDS WERE NW'LY.  THE UPPER LEVELS WERE NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY DIVERGENT.

THE GFS FCSTS THAT MOISTURE LEVELS OVER THE AREA WILL PREMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH WITH SLIGHT FLUCTUATIONS. AN E'LY FLOW IS EXPECTED AT THE SURFACE TO LOW LEVELS AND A E-SE'LY FLOW WILL BE AT THE MID LEVELS. AT THE UPPER LEVELS A W-SW'LY IS EXPECTED. UPPER LEVEL CONDITIONS WILL BE WEAKLY DIVERGENT.  SO CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST THIS MORNING, THEN OVER CENTRAL AND INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND AFFECT MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND COATAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT. A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING SOUTERN AND COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, DECREASING.

CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS OR PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST THIS MORNING, THEN OVER CENTRAL AND INLAND AREAS THIS AFTERNOON. SHOWERY ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE FURTHER AND AFFECT MOSTLY SOUTHERN AND COATAL AREAS LATE TONIGHT.
A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE AFFECTING SOUTERN AND COASTAL AREAS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT, DECREASING.
Winds Seas Waves
East | 5-15 kts Light Chop-Rough 2-6 ft

Forecaster: Young, Shanea

Last Updated: Sun, Sep 23, 2018 | 07:59 AM