Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

SAT IMAGERY (IR) AND RADAR OBS SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED N'RN AND CENTRAL AREAS EARLIER  DURING THE NIGHT WHILE A FEW MORE SHOWERS WERE OVER N'RN COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (12Z) SHOWED AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 30-40mm OVER OUR AREA, WHILE WV IMAGERY DETECTED MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT MID-UPPER LVLS ACROSS SE'RN MEXICO / YUCATAN - CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE ENTIRE CARIBBEAN. SKEW-T (12Z) SOUNDING SHOWED LIMITED LOW LVL MOISTURE CAPPED BELOW 750hPa BY A MOD INVERSION (SUBS) THEN DRY THRU THE MID - UPPER LVLS WITH PW 37.18mm. THE INDICES (KI -7.80, LIFTED -2.38, SHOW 3.00 AND CAPE 866.9j/kg) SHOW A RELATIVELY STABLE ENVIRON.  

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC - 17 / 06Z) HAD A HIGH (1026hPa) OVER THE CAROLINAS AND SUPPORTING A MOD E'LY FLOW OVER THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN - YUCATAN AND BZE. A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM A LOW OVER E'RN TEXAS TO THE MEXICAN COAST NEAR 24N. AT LOW - MID LVLS THE FLOW VEERS TO ESE'LY AND SE'LY ON THE W'RN FRINGES OF A BROAD RIDGE CENTERED NEAR THE BAHAMAS. AT UPPER LVLS THE RIDGE WAS CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN AND N'RN SOUTH AMERICA WITH A POLAR TROUGH ACROSS THE SW'RN USA - NW'RN MEXICO AND INTO THE E'RN PACIFIC. THE FLOW WAS S'LY - SSW'LY AND ANALYSIS SHOW A MODERATELY DIVERGENT PATTERN ALOFT. 

THE GFS SUGGEST A GENERALLY E'LY SFC FLOW WILL PREVAIL DURING THIS 3-DAY CYCLE WHILE AT LOW - MID LVLS THE FLOW IS TO ALSO CONTINUE ESE'LY - SE'LY.THE PATTERN IS TO BE CONVERGENT WITH LOW LVL MOISTURE TO FLUCTUATE WITH PEAKS MON AND TUES MORNINGS AND MOISTURE MIN LATE AFTERNOON / EVENING. AT UPPER LVLS THE RIDGE / TROUGH PATTERN IS TO PERSIST / MAINTAIN THE S'LY COMPONENT TO THE WINDS WITH THE MODERARTELY DIVERENT PATTERN TO BECMG WEAKER AFTER MID-CYCLE. IN THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN EARLY- MORNING SHOWERS ARE LIKELY THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY ISOLATED LATER DURING THE DAY AND NIGHT-TIME. 

THE GFS SUGGEST RR AMTS OF .10ins/3hrs DURING THE LULLS AND .25-.5ins/3hrs DURING THE ACTIVE PERIODS. THE NAM GOES FOR .25-.5ins/3hrs DURING THE FCST AND EXTND PERIODS THEN SMALLER AMTS DURING DAY THREE. THE NVG GOES FOR 4-8mm/12hrs DURING MON AND TUES WITH 6-10mm/12hrs TUES NIGHT.        

SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW OVER NORTHERN AREAS THIS MORNING.
SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS MON. THEN MAINLY FAIR WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS MON. NIGHT.
Winds Seas Waves
| 10-20 kts Choppy-Moderate 3-6 ft

Forecaster: Gentle, Michael

Last Updated: Sun, Dec 17, 2017 | 07:24 AM