Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize

RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL OVER THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON; THERE WERE ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH SEA AND EXTREME SOUTHERN BELIZE. SATELLIE IMAGERY SHOWED LAYERED CLOUDS OVER EXTREME SOUTHERN BELIZE AND ALSO OFFSHORE, MOVING OVER SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL COASTAL AREAS BY THIS EVENING.  ALSO EARLY THIS EVENING, A LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPED AS IT MOVED CLOSER TO THE BARRIER REEF FROM THE EAST. THE 00Z SOUNDING SHOWED NO SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE/CHANGE COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. PWAT REMAINED LOW, AT ABOUT 29MM. THE ENVIRONMENTAL PROFILE SUGGETSED A DRY AND VERY STABLE ATMOSPHERE OVER THE AREA. 

AT THE SURFACE, THE WINDS CONTINUED TO BE GENERALLY NE'LY TODAY, WHILE LOW LEVEL WINDS WERE SUGGESTED TO BE E'LY. THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING SHOWED THE WINDS VEERING WITH HEIGHT AT THE LOW TO MID LEVELS, SUGGESTING CONTINUED WARM AIR ADVECTION OVER THE AREA OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. BY TOMORROW, A COLD FRONT CURRENTLY EXTENDING OVER SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD BE OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BE A FAST-PROPAGATING FRONT, AND IS SUGGESTED TO CROSS BELIZE ON SUNDAY (TO EXTEND OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA BY SUNDAY EVENING). MEANWHILE, THE UPPER LEVELS CONTINUED TO BE RATHER DRY AND WITH A WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN. 

GFS SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. GDI SUGGESTS LOW CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL FOR THAT PERIOD, AND JUST ABOUT NIL, OTHERWISE FOR THE NEXT TWO TO THREE DAYS. THE MODELS (NAM, GFS, WRF) SUGGEST LOW PRECIP AMOUNTS OF UP TO ABOUT 0.5IN/3HR FOR THIS SAME PERIOD, WITH RAINFALL SUGGESTED TO BE CONCENTRATED OVER INLAND BELIZE DURING THE EARLIER PART OF THE DAY, AND THEN OVER THE SEA/OFFSHORE BY AFTERNOON. THE MODELS ALSO AGREE WITH THE WIND SHIFT TO MODERATE TO GUSTY NW'LY WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP SIGNIFICANTLY WITH THE CROSSING OF THIS COLD FRONT, ON SUNDAY. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE COOLEST / MOST CHILLY OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 

PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WILL PREVAIL, WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL EXPECTED.
IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY MORNING, MAINLY OVER INLAND AREAS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO BECOME WINDY AND COOL ON SUNDAY.
Winds Seas Waves
East | 5-15 kts Light Chop-Choppy 2-4 ft

Forecaster: Guy, Angelia

Last Updated: Fri, Jan 18, 2019 | 08:07 PM