Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • At 3:00 am Hurricane Gert was centred near latitude 36.0N and longitude 68.4W or about 330 miles Northwest of Bermuda. Gert was moving to the North-east at 21mph with maximum sustained winds of 90mph. Elsewhere in the North Atlantic, Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Mexico, tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

SKIES   WERE  PARTLY CLOUDY  ACROSS THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT.  RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ISOLATED  SHOWER ACTIVITY. OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MOISTURE OVER  MOST OF THE  REGION, EXCEPT OVER MUCH OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.  MIMIC SHOWED  PWAT'S VALUE TO TO BE BETWEEN 45-50MM .

AT UPPER LEVELS, TROUGHING  SUPPORTED NE'LY WINDS AT 200MB  AND SE'LY WINDS AT 300MB.   THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL .  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WERE  DRY.  RIDGING ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN   SUPPORTED ELY WINDS.  AT 800MB, CONDITIONS WERE MOIST  AND THE FLOW WAS E'LY. THE  06Z SURFACE CHART (NHC) SHOWED  A TROPICAL WAVE   NEAR  100W, 81W AND 60W.   THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SUPPORTED A MODERATE E'LY FLOW. A 1004MB LOW CENTER WAS OVER NORTH CENTRAL MEXICO AND A 1011MB LOW CENTER WAS NEAR 46W.  AT 3:00AM . GERT WAS ABOUT 330 MILES  NORTHWEST OF BERMUDA WITH MAX WINDS OF 90 MPH  AND MOVING NE.  THE 12Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWAT'S VALUE TO BE 45.61, KINX'S; 21.70 AND CAPE'S2213.

DURING THE NEXT 24-48HRS,  THE FLOW AT 2OOMB WILL VEER TO THE  SW AND BACK TO THE NE AT 300MB.    THE  PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY NEUTRAL .  AT 700MB,    DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AND   THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM  THE EAST.   AT 850MB, MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE  AND  WINDS WILL VEERTO THE SE .   AT THE SURFACE THE FLOW WILL  PERSIST GENERALLY FROM THE EAST.

 GFS RAINFALL  MODEL  SHOWS -.01IN-.25IN/3HRS RAINFALL WITH THE PEAK OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AMOUNTS DECREASE TO .01-.10IN/3HRS DURING THE 48HRS PERIOD.. NAM SHOWS .01-.75IN/3HRS DURING THE FIRST 24HRS , THEN DECREASES AMOUNTS TO .01IN/3HRS.

 

SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. SLIGHTLY MORE WILL AFFECT THE SOUTH TONIGHT.
A SIMILAR TREND OCCURS ON THURS. AND THURS. NIGHT.
Winds Seas Waves
East | 5-15 kts Choppy 3-4 ft

Forecaster: Wellington, Francisca

Last Updated: Wed, Aug 16, 2017 | 06:37 AM