Forecast Discussion - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING. WV LOOP SHOW GENERALLY MOIST CONDITIONS AT MID-UPPER LEVS OVER BZE AND MOST OF THE REGION. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SHOW PWAT VALUES OF AROUND 55-60MM NEAR THE COUNTRY WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES FURTHER OUT OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN. 

SFC ANALYSIS (12Z) SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE COUNTRY AND ANOTHER NEAR JAMAICA. YET ANOTHER WAVE WAS NOTED APPROACHING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 55W. A MOD E'LY SFC FLOW PREVAILED OVER BZE. THE FLOW WAS ESE'LY IN THE LOW LEVS (850-700HPA) WITH WEAK RIDGING OVER THE AREA. AT THE UPPER LEVS THE FLOW WAS NE'LY AT 300HPA AND NW'LY AT 200HPA. THE PATTERN WAS GENERALLY NEUTRAL AND THE MAIN FEATURE WAS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND A WEAKING TUTT WITH AXIS ACROSS NE HONDURAS NE'WARDS TO CUBA AND BEYOND. 

THE GFS (12Z RUN) FCST THE SFC FLOW TO CONTINUE E'LY FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR JAMAICA WILL CROSS THE COUNTRY ON WED NIGHT WITH A STRONG LOW LEV WIND SURGE IN ITS WAKE. THIS WILL PRODUCE A GUSTY E-SE'LY SFC FLOW LATE WED INTO THURSDAY.  MOISTURE IS FCST TO DECREASE CONSIDERABLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AS A DRIER AIR MASS MOVES IN. AT THE UPPER LEVS, THE WEAK TUTT WILL WEAKEN FURTHER AND BY THE END OF THE CYCLE RIDGING WILL SUPPORT A NW'LY FLOW ALOFT. LIMITED SUPPORT FOR DEEP CONVECTION IS EXPECTED BEYOND THE NEXT 12 HOURS. 

THE MODELS SHOW RAINFALL AMOUNTS GRAUDALLY DECREASING DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH ONLY LIMITED RAINFALL AFTER. THE GFS HOWEVER SHOWS ANOTHER SURGE IN RAINFALL PARTICULARLY OVER THE SOUTH ON WED NIGHT WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE TROPICAL WAVE AND LOW LEV E'LY WIND SURGE.

CLOUDY AT TIMES WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS THIS AFTERNOON AND THEN MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH AND COAST TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.
FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY ON THURSDAY IS FOR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
Winds Seas Waves
East | 10-20 kts Choppy-Moderate 3-5 ft

Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald

Last Updated: Tue, Jun 27, 2017 | 12:38 PM