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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( Febraury-March April 2016)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period Febraury-March-April 2016  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to December 2015, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2015, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period  February -March- April2016  is going for Below Normal rainfall for the Entire Country and Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period February-March-April 2016

fma 2016 rainfall fcstfma 2016 rainfall percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during February-March-April 2016 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the FMA 2016 season are likely to range from 40mm to 100mm or (60-50)% over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk)
Accumulated rainfall totals for the FMA 2016 season are likely to range from 100mm to 140mm or 40% over Inland areas (Cayo) and also over Central Coastal areas (Belize District).

 

Accumulated rainfall totals over southern Belize (Stann Creek and Toledo) are likely to be between  140mm and  200mm or 30%.
 
Temperature Forecast for the period February-March-April 2016
mean temp fcst fma 2016max temp fcst fma 2016min temp fcst fma 2016

 

 

What influences the next season?

El Niño Southern Oscillation: A strong El Niño have reached peak strength at the end of 2015 ; sea-surface temperatures of 2.5-3.0°C above average  in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model forecast and guidance indeicate that the  El Niño of 2015 will weakenn duirng the FMA period and 60-70% confidence will  likely to dissappear in May-June _July of 2016. 

The expected impact  on the FMA period is Below Normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the country of Belize

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.