Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook
( Febraury-March April 2016)
Several agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast for the period Febraury-March-April 2016 This was done by using the data set for the period 1979 to December 2015, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.
The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.
Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2015, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period February -March- April2016 is going for Below Normal rainfall for the Entire Country and Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters.
Precipitation Outlook for the period February-March-April 2016
Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during February-March-April 2016 are as follows.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the FMA 2016 season are likely to range from 40mm to 100mm or (60-50)% over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk)
Accumulated rainfall totals for the FMA 2016 season are likely to range from 100mm to 140mm or 40% over Inland areas (Cayo) and also over Central Coastal areas (Belize District).
Accumulated rainfall totals over southern Belize (Stann Creek and Toledo) are likely to be between 140mm and 200mm or 30%.
Temperature Forecast for the period February-March-April 2016
What influences the next season?
El Niño Southern Oscillation: A strong El Niño have reached peak strength at the end of 2015 ; sea-surface temperatures of 2.5-3.0°C above average in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model forecast and guidance indeicate that the El Niño of 2015 will weakenn duirng the FMA period and 60-70% confidence will likely to dissappear in May-June _July of 2016.
The expected impact on the FMA period is Below Normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the country of Belize.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.