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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

(April - May -June 2017) and (July - August - September 2017)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

 

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period April - May - June 2017 (AMJ 2017) is for above normal rainfall over the country, especially over nothern areas. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period  April-May-June 2017 are as follows:

 

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 300-500 Above Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 400-500

Above Normal

Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 450-550 Above Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-800 Slightly Above Normal

 

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period July - August - September 2017 (JAS 2017)  is for Below Normal rainfall  over the entire country with driest conditions expected over northern and central areas. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period July -August-September 2017 are as follows:

 

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 300-400  Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District excluding Belmopan) 400-600  Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 400-500  Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-1500  Below Normal

 

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range. 

 

Period Rainfall Maps Percent Maps (Below/Above) Maximum Temperature Maps Minimum Temperature Maps
Apr-May-June (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map
July-Aug-Sep (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map

 

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests that sea surface temperatures in the  equatorial eastern Pacific are trending toward neutral conditions. Neutral conditions are expected to persist through April-May-June 2017 with a gradual shift toward weak El Nino Conditions during the months of July-August-September 2017. This shift toward El Nino is what is expected to cause the dry conditions during this period. El Nino normally surpresses rainfall activity in our area due to strong upper level westerly winds and consequently strong vertical wind shear. This in turn surpresses thunderstorm formation and development.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.