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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( June-July-August 2016)  &

(September-October-November2016)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period June-July-August 2016  and September-October-November 2016 This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to April 2016, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to April 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period June-July-August 2016  is going for  Normal rainfall  for the entire country Except the West Central  and North which are projecting Below Normal rainfall.

Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters during the JJA period.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period June-July-August 2016

jja 2016 rainfall fcstjja 2016 rainfall percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during June-July -August 2016 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the JJA 2016 season are likely to range from 300mm to 500mm  over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central  (Cayo  Central Farm  Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) Whiels in Baldy Beacon area projecting 1000 - 1400mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the JJA 2016 season are likely to range from 600mm to 1000mm  along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 1000-2000mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
 
The rainfall forecast for Belize for period September- October-November  2016  is going for Above Normal rainfall  for the Entire Country Except the West Central  and Northern which is projecting Normal rainfall. 
 
son 2016 rainfall fcstson 2016 rainfall percent
 
Temperature Forecast for the period June-July-August 2016  is going for Above Normal as  indicated on the Maps Below.
max temp fcst jja 2016min temp fcst jja 2016
 
Temperature Forecast for the period September-October-November 2016  is going for Above Normal as  indicated on the Maps Below.
 max temp fcst son 2016min temp fcst son 2016

What influences the next season? 

El Niño Southern Oscillation:   El Niño expected to disappear by May or June of 2016. Model forecast and guidance indicate a return to neutral condition  in June or July of 2016 and more than 70% confidence  that  La Nina conditions will evolved  during the peak of the Hurricane season which is August-September and October. 

The expected impact on the rainfall and temperatures for Belize for period JJA period is  for Normal rainfall  over much of the country and higher temperatures.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.