Seasonal Precipitation Outlook
Ten agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation forecast for the period January-Febraury-March 2014 and December2013-January-March 2014 for Belize. This was done by using the data set for the period 1979-2012, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.
The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.
Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)
Near Normal - (33% of middle values in the dataset)
Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)
Thus based on the dataset 1979 to 2012, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast for (January- February-March 2014) and December 2013 to January-February-March2014 is going for Above Normal Rainfall for the entire country.
Rainfall Probabilistically of
40% chance of above normal rainfall
35% chance of Normal rainfall
25% chance of Below Normal rainfall
Precipitation Outlook for January-February-March 2014 prepared by the Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook (CARICOF)
Precipitation Outlook for December2013-January-February-March2014 prepared at the Central American Forum.
ENSO conditions have been (cold-)neutral (SST anom. currently around 0°C) since last autumn and most models suggest neutral conditions, to persist in coming months, with increasing chances of El Niño manifest by JAS 2014. N Atlantic SSTs have been about 0.5-1°C above average east of the Caribbean and are expected to remain above average into the May 2014. NAO has been fluctuating around the average from late spring with little predictability ever since. One unforeseen factor in June-July-August and parts of September was an above average frequency of inflow of the Saharan (dry) Air Layer to the eastern Caribbean, which has subsided in September..
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.