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Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(June-July-August 2015 &

May-June-July 2015)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Ten agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period May-June-July & June-July-August 2015  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979-April 2015, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2015, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period June thru August 2015 is going for Below Normal rainfall for the country.

 

Rainfall Probabilistically

 

20% chance of above normal rainfall

35% chance of Normal rainfall

45% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

Precipitation Outlook for the period June-July-August 2015 prepared by CariCOF is going for Below Normal Rainfall.

jja 2015

 

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during JJA 2015 are as follows.

 

Northern Areas and Inland Areas  (Normal Rainfall)

Libertad (Corozal) (<495.4mm) or (<19.5 inches)

Tower Hill (Orange Walk) (<520.0mm)  or(<20.4 inches)

Belmopan (Cayo) (<663.4mm) or (<26.1inches)

Central Farm (Cayo) (<509.5mm) or (<20.1inches)

Spanish Look out (Cayo) (<467.3mm) or (<18.3inches)

 

Central Coastal  Areas Normal Rainfall

Philip Goldson Airport (Belize) (<529.8mm) or (<20.8inches)

 

 

Southern Areas Normal Rainfall

Middlesex (Stann Creek)  (<961.7mm) or (<37.9inches)

Melinda (Stann Creek Valley) (<665.4 mm) or (<26.1 inches)

Savannah (South Stann Creek) (<824.4mm) or (<32.5inches)

Pomona ( Stann Creek Valley) (<815.4mm) or (<32.1inches)

Punta Gorda (Punta Gorda) (<1554.9mm) or ( <61.2inches)

 

 

 

Thus based on the dataset 1979 to 2015, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast  for  (May-June-July 2015) prepared at the Central American Forum that was helded in Manangua Nicaragua  is going for  Above Normal rainfall to prevail over the North, Interior  and Extreme South of the country. The Coastal areas are going for Normal Rainfall to prevail. 

 

Rainfall Probabilistically for North, Interior and Extreme South

40% chance of above normal rainfall

35% chance of Normal rainfall

25% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

Rainfall Probabilistically  for Coastal Areas.

 35% chance of above normal rainfall

40% chance of Normal rainfall

25% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

What influences the next season? El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Recent observations: weak El Niño; sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) 0.5-1°C above average and rising in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model guidance: 85-90% of the models indicate continued rise in SSTs for JJA & SON with some suggesting further warming into a moderate or strong El Niño event by JJA and SON, while only 5% has SSTs decreasing to 0-0.5°C below average beyond JJA. Forecast: 90% confidence in El Niño conditions during JJA and 85% during SON. Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: a large shift to higher probabilities for below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the region, as El Niño usually weakens the development of rain-, thunder- and tropical storms.

 

 

Precipitation Outlook for May-June-July 2015 prepared at the Central American Forum.

mjj 2015

 

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.