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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: FRIDAY 27TH MARCH 2015 (EVENING)                  

SKIES WERE  CLOUDY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. THUNDERSHOWERS WERE OBSERVED AROUND THE COUNTRY INCLUDING THE AIRPORT.  WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY MOIST AIR MOVING ACROSS BELIZE FROM THE SW.

AT UPPER-LEVELS OVER BELIZE, A MOIST AND UNSTABLE SW'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A TROUGH DOMINATES THE CENTRAL USA, THE GULF OF MEXICO AND THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND   A LIGHT N'LY FLOW PREVAILS.  AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE NW AS A FRONTAL TROUGH SITS IN THE GULF OF MEXICO. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WAS PLACED JUST OVER WESTERN YUCATAN TO NORTHERN FLORIDA.  A 1025MB HIGH CENTER WAS PLACED OVER MEXICO.

FRI NIGHT AND SAT:

THE  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FORM THE SW AS THE TROUGH PERSIST OVER THE GENERAL AREA. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST, WHILE  THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTHEAST. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST AS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE  NORTHEAST.  AT THE SURFACE, THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE N/NE AND BECOMES STRONGER AS THE FRONT MOVES SOUTH OVER BELIZE TONIGHT. BY SAT MORNING IT REACHES NORTHERN BELIZE WHERE IT BECOMES STATIONARY. GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS 

SAT NIGHT AND SUN:

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FROM THE SW DURING THIS CYCLE.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST , WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE  EAST. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN MOIST WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NE. AT THE SURFACE, THE  COLD FRONT REMAINS STATIONARY OVER NORTH OF BELIZE.  GFS SHOWS AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL- .01IN-.25IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS NO RAINFALL.

FORECAST: CLOUDY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOST AREAS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK: (SAT NIGHT AND SUN  ) CLOUDY WITH SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS..

MARINE: WINDS: E/NE  10-20 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS NEAR HEAVY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS; SEAS:  MODERATE-ROUGH; *SMALL CRAFT CAUTION* ;  WAVES:4-6 FT. A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS

ORECASTER:  Wellington