NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 22ND FEBRUARY 2012 (EVENING)

RADAR DETECTED ONLY LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A PATCH OF MOSTLY LAYERED SC CLOUD WITH A FEW EMBEDDED SHALLOW-MOD CONVECTION CROSSING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY SHOWED DRY AIR SUBSIDENT AT MID-UPPER LEVS OVER S'RN MEXICO, THE YUCATAN, CNTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN WHILE SOME HIGH CLOUDS PERSISTED OVER N'RN MEXICO AND THE GULF. LATEST MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LIMITED PRECIP WATER IN THE RANGE 25-35mm.

SFC ANALYSIS (18Z) SHOWED A 1028mb HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE ATLANTIC EXTENDING A RIDGE SW'WARDS TOWARDS THE E'RN GULF OF MEXICO, THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BZE. THIS FEATURE WAS SUPPORTING A RELATIVELY DRY EASTERLY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. LIMITED MOISTURE WAS CAPPED BELOW 850mb WITH ONLY LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE. THE FLOW THROUGH THE LOW LEVELS TO MID LEVELS WAS SE'LY, STRONGLY SUBSIDENT AND DRY WHITHE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WAS SW-W'LY AND ONLY WEAKLY DIVERGENT.

THE GFS (12 AND 18Z) MODEL RUN FCST THE HIGH TO PULL OFF TO THE EAST CAUSING THE SFC FLOW OVER OUR AREA TO VEER TO THE EAST TO SOUTHEAST TONIGHT THROUGH TO THURSDAY NIGHT AND SOUTHEAST BY FRIDAY. THE FLOW IS ALSO FCST TO BECOME DRIER WITH MOISTURE CONFINED BELOW 900mb BY TOMORROW MIDDAY. LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE WILL PREVAIL AND PEAK IN DIURNAL CYCLES (MIDNIGH TO EARLY MORNING). THE MID LEVEL FLOW CONTINUE SE'LY  AND DRY THOUOUGHT THE NEXT 48HRS WHILE THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE GENERALLY SW'LY AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT.

THE GFS AND NAM MODELS SUGGEST LIMITED PRECIP OF ONLY 0.01-0.10 ins/6hrs FOR THE FIRST 24-HOURS THEN ONLY TRACE AMOUNTS FROM 24-48HOURS.

OUTLOOK:  THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY: CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR AND WARM WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

MARINE:  WINDS: E-SE 10-20 KTS.; SEAS: CHOPPY - MODERATE.; WAVES:  3-6 FT.

FORECASTER:  R. Gordon