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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 24TH MAY 2017 (EVENING)

THUNDERSHOWERS/ISOL THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED (FEW MOVED IN FROM THE WEST) OVER INLAND (W'RN) BZE THIS AFTERNOON. LATER, THIS EVENING, A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOL THUNDERSTORMS MOVED IN FROM THE WEST, TO AFFECT MAINLY N'RN AND INLNAD AREAS. THIS ACTIVITY WAS ASSOCIATED WITH MOISTURE AHEAD OF A LATE SEASON CF. PRE-FRONTAL TROF AHEAD OF THE CF EXTENDED FROM ABOUT CNTRL E'RN GULF OF MEX TO BAY OF CAMPECHE, WHILE CF EXTENDED FROM BORDER WITH GEORGIA AND NORTH CAROLINA, SW'WARD TO CNTRL E'RN MEX. SFC ANALYSIS (18Z) SHOWED THAT AN AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE FOLLOWED IMMEDIATELY TO THE WEST OF THIS CF. LOW PRESSURE AREA AND TROFING WAS OVER N'RN/CNTRL MAINLAND MEX. FURTHER EAST, THE N ATL HIGH PRESSURE RIGE EXTENDED OVER E'RN AND N'RN AND NW'RN CARIB. TROFING WAS OVER S'RN CARIB AREA. THIS EVENING'S SOUNDING SHOWED A MOIST AND UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT OVER THE AREA. PWAT WAS ABOUT 59MM. LATEST (23Z) SAT IMAGE WOULD SUGGEST THAT THESE HIGHER PWAT AMTS ARE OVER THE SOUTH, WITH SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OVER THE REST OF THE COUNTRY. 

GFS SUGGESTS THAT THE SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO BE E-SE'LY DURING THE NEXT 12-26 HOURS, WITH DECREASING WIND SPEEDS TOMORROW DURING THE DAYTIME. THE MODELS (GFS, NAM, WRF DOM1) SUGGEST THAT AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM IS LIKELY OVER INLAND BZE ONCE MORE TOMORROW. THESE MODELS ALSO SUGGEST PRECIP ALONG COASTAL AREAS LATE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY MORNING, SPREADING TO INLAND AREAS WITH MODERATE TO STRONG E-SE'LY AIRFLOW.  

FORECAST:  SKIES WILL BE MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS TONIGHT AND THEN THERE IS THE CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPING INLAND TOMORROW. ESLEWHERE, SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY IS FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER TO CONTINUE, WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING FRIDAY AFTERNOON. 

MARINE:  WINDS: E-SE 10-20KT; SEAS: MODERATE; WAVES: 4-6FT.

FCSTR:  A. Guy