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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: SUNDAY 23RD JULY 2016 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE  PARTLY CLOUDY  ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED NO RAINFALL ACTIVITY. WATER  VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MOIST AIR OVER  MEXICO, OVER THE GULF, OVER CENTRAL AMERICA, THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND PARTS OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN.

AT UPPER LEVELS A  NE'LY FLOW PREVAILS  AS A TROUGH DOMINATES THE WESTERN CARIBBEAN. THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY NEUTRAL. AT 700MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY  AND  THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY SE'LY. AT 850MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE SOUTHEAST. THE 18Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 92W AND 52W. RIDGING FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH SUPPORTED A LIGHT TO MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW. THE 00Z ANALYSIS SHOWS PWAT'S VALUE TO BE 42.87, KINX'S;21.30 AND CAPE'S;2349.

DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS, THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS WILL VEER TO THE SE AS THE TROUGH DRIFTS WEST.  THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE UNSTABLE.  AT THE  LOWER LEVELS, 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW WILL BACK UP TO THE EAST.  AT 850MB,  MOISTURE FLUCTUATES,WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE  EAST. AT THE SURFACE  WINDS WILL PERSIST MAINLY FROM THE EAST DURING THE NEXT 24HRS-48HRS.  GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN-.25IN/3HRS DURING THE 24-48HRS PERIOD WITH THE PEAK OCCURRING OVER THE SOUTH  TONIGHT, MONDAY NIGHT AND ALONG THE COAST DURING TUESDAY..  NAMS SHOWS 0-.10IN/3HRS DURING THE 24-48HRS PERIOD

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNNY TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT

OUTLOOK: FOR MONDAY  NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTH AND ALONG THE COAST.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST AT 10-20 KNOTS ;SEAS: MODERATE; WAVES:4-6 FT; A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE  SOUTH TONIGHT. 

FORECASTER: Wellington