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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SUNDAY 1ST MARCH 2015 (AFTERNOON)                  

SKIES WERE CLOUDY AT TIMES THIS MORNING . A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED COASTAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS AREAS, AS WELL AS SOME INLAND AREAS.  WATER VAPOR LOOP  SHOWS  DRY AIR MOVING OVER BELIZE FROM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST.

AT UPPER-LEVELS A DRY  W/NW'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A RIDGE/HIGH CENTER DOMINATES SOUTHERN MEXICO AND  CENTRAL AMERICA.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE  MOIST  AND  A LIGHT E'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST  AND A MODERATE  E'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT THE SURFACE THE 12Z ANALYSIS SHOWED A  TROUGH OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO. RIDGING OVER THE CARIBBEAN SUPPORTED A LIGHT E/NE'LY FLOW. 

SUN AFTERNOON TO MON MIDDAY :

THE  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN FORM THE WEST AND NORTHWEST. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MOIST TODAY, DECREASING AND DRYING OUT BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW WILL REMAIN FROM THE EAST.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE, WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE  EAST. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING WILL MAINTAIN A MODERATE E/NE'LY FLOW. GFS RAINFALL MODEL SHOWS .01IN/3HRS DURING THIS CYCLE. NAM SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS.

MON AFTERNOON TO TUES MIDDAY :

THE FLOW ALOFT WILL VEER TO THE NORTH AND NORTWEST. AT 700MB, MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE COUNTRY AGAIN, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE SOUTHEAST. AT 850MB, MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLUCTUATE, WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE EAST. AT THE SURFACE, RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN E/NE'LY FLOW. GFS SHOWS .01IN-.10IN/3HRS. NAM SHOWS  MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AT FIRST THEN INCREASES AMOUNTS TO .25IN/3HRS.

FORECAST: CLOUDY SPELLS THIS AFTERNOON, TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING  . A FEW SHOWERS WILL AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL  AND SOUTHERN AREAS.

OUTLOOK: BETWEEN MON AFTERNOON AND TUES MIDDAY IS FOR A FEW SHOWERS TO AFFECT MAINLY COASTAL AREAS.

MARINE: WINDS: E/NE 10-20 KT WITH OCCNL HIGHER GUSTS. SEAS: CHOPPY-MODERATE BECMG ROUGH AT TIMES, *SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IS IN EFFECT*.  WAVES: 3-5 FT.  A FEW SHOWERS.

ORECASTER:  Wellington