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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

 

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

DATE: THURSDAY 2ND OCTOBER 2014 (MORNING)  

A FEW SHOWERS AND T-STORMS OCCURRED OVER SRN COASTAL BZE LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING.

SATPIX IMAGERY (IR) LOCATED  THE AREA OF SHWRS AND T-STORMS OVER SRN COASTAL BZE .WATER VAPOUR  IMAGERY  MOIST AIR  COVERING  SRN MEXICO/BZE AND   CNTRL AMERICA. DRY AIR COVERED THE CNTRL AND  WRN CARIBBEAN.DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED  OVER SRN MEXICO/GUATEMALA AND THE SRN CARIBBEAN NEAR PANAMA.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 02-06Z  LOCATED A TROPICAL WAVE  OVER THE ERN CARIBBEAN. AN ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS ERN CUBA WAS MAINTAINING THE E/SE'LY SFC FLOW OVER BZE AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN.A STNRY FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS CNTRL FLORIDA AND THE NE GULFOMEX.

SKEW-T PROFILE FOR 02-12Z APPEARED MOIST IN THE LOW  LVLS(SFC TO 700hPa) THEN RELATIVELY DRIER AT MID LVLS.PWAT WAS 53.9MM(MODERATE);LIFTED=-7.38(HIGH INSTABILITY); SHOW=-3.03(MARGINAL);KINX=26.9(LOW CONVECTIVE). WIND PROFILE IN THE LOW LVLS WAS ESE'LY.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 00Z DATA IS SUGGESTING THE PERSISTENCE  OF A FAIRLY DRY SOUTHEASTERLY SFC FLOW OVER BZE AND WRN CARIBBEAN TODAY AND FRIDAY.A WELL DEFINED ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE IS RESPONSIBLE FOR THE  CURRENT SIUTATION.SHWR DEVELOPMENT OUGHT TO REMAIN GENERALLY ISOLATED TODAY AND FRIDAY.

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa).WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT  E'LY AT THIS LVL THROUGH FRIDAY.

 AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) AN UPPER LVL HIGH CNTRD OVER NRN MEXICO IS GENERATING A STEADY NE'LY FLOW ACROSS THE ERN GULFOMEX AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN.N SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FLOW HERE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.PATTERN WILL BE DIVERGENT AT 300hPa AND CONVERGENT AT 200hPa.

 PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS  SUGGESTING SMALL  RAINFALL AMOUNTS(5-15MM) FOR COASTAL AND INLAND BZE TODAY. SIMILAR AMOUNTS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY. THE NAM MODEL FCST  DOES NOT APPEAR TOO IMPRESSIVE AT THIS TIME,THOUGH THIS MODEL DOES MAINTAIN SIMILAR RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR TODAY AND FRIDAY.

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ALONG COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING BEFORE SPREADING INLAND DURING THE AFTERNOON.SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: (SATURDAY): PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH  ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE:  WINDS: E/SE  10-20KT.; SEAS:CHOPPY-MODERATE; WAVES:3-5 FT.; ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS; SLIGHTLY MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT.

FORECASTER: F.Tench Jr.