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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: WEDNESDAY 28TH SEPT 2016 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS ALONG THE BORDER WITH GUATEMALA, NEAR THE MAYA MOUNTAINS. WATER  VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MOIST AIR OVER MEXICO, THE GULF, OVER CENTRAL AMERICA,THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND OVER MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN BASIN. 

AT UPPER LEVELS A NE'LY  FLOW PREVAILS  DUE TO RIDGING OVER THE COUNTRY/GULF OF MEXICO. THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY DIVERGENT. AT 700MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS SE'LY. AT 850MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS E'LY. THE 18Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A RELATIVELY TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE REGION, SUPPORTING A MODERATE E-SE'LY FLOW. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS OBSERVED NEAR 81W AND NEAR 45W. A WEAK TROUGH WAS OBSERVED PARALLEL TO THE MEXICAN EAST COAST.  T.S. MATTHEW WAS LOCATED ABOUT 65 MILES WEST OF ST. LUCIA. THE 00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWAT'S VALUE TO BE 43.67, KINX'S; 31.10 AND CAPE'S; 2381.

DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BACK UP TO THE NORTHWEST AS A TROUGH MOVES NW OVER THE AREA . THE PATTERN WILL FLUCTUATE BETWEEN DIVERGENCE AND  CONVERGENCE.  AT THE  LOWER LEVELS, 700MB, MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE DURING THE 24-48 HRS BECOMING CONFINED TO THE SOUTH BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW WILL BACK UP TO THE NE AS MATTHEW MOVES FURTHER WEST.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS WILL FLUCTUATE AND THE FLOW WILL ALSO BACK UP TO THE NE. AT THE SURFACE THE MODERATE E-SE'LY FLOW WILL  BACK UP TO THE EAST THEN THE NE BY THE END OF THE CYCLE, WITH WINDS BECOMING LIGHT.  GFS SHOWS .01-.50IN/3HRS DURING THE 24-48HRS PERIOD WITH THE PEAK OVER INLAND AREAS IN THE  AFTERNOON AND OVER THE SOUTH  AND  COAST AT NIGHT. NAM SHOWS LESSER AMOUNTS .10-.25IN/3HRS DURING THE 24-48HRS PERIOD WITH THE PEAK MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS.

FORECAST: CLOUDY SPELLS TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.  A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTH AND ALONG SOME COASTAL AREAS TONIGHT AND  MORNING MORNING, THEN MOSTLY INLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

OUTLOOK: A SIMILAR TREND WILL OCCUR ON THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

MARINE:  WINDS:EAST  5-15 KT;SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES:3-4 FT; A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTROMS, MAINLY SOUTH.

FORECASTER: Wellington