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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE:  TUESDAY 7TH JULY 2015 (MORNING)

THE WEATHER CONTINUED MAINLY FAIR LAST NIGHT, SHOWERS WERE LIGHT, BRIEF AND ISOLATED. WINDS AT THE CAYES GUSTED TO 26-28 KTS BEFORE MIDNIGHT, BUT HAVE SUBSISED A BIT SINCE THEN. AVAILABLE MOISTURE OVER THE REGION CONTINUED LOW, WITH THE TPW IMAGES SHOWING PWAT AROUND 40MM EAST OF BELIZE. THE SOUNDING SHOWED SIMILAR PWAT AND GENERALLY STABLE CONDITIONS (SHOW 0.4, LIFT -4.9, KINX 19.4, CAPE 2529). SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 06Z (NHC) SHOWED A 1020MB HIGH OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO, AND AN EASTERLY FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS ALONG 69W SOUTH OF 19N, AND A 1009MB LOW OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE FLOW CONTINUED MODERATE TO STRONG AT 850 AND 700MB. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN APPEARED NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY DIVERGENT, WITH WEST-SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AN UPPER LOW WAS NORTH OF YUCATAN AND A BROAD UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SW CARIBBEAN ANS CNTRL AMERICA. 

THE GFS (00Z & 06Z) FORECASTS THE MOISTURE LEVEL TO CONTINUE LOW THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING, THEN INCREASE LATER IN THE NIGHT. (THE TROPICAL WAVE NEAR 69W IT TO BE OVER OUR AREA ON FRIDAY AT ITS CURRENT SPEED.) THE SURFACE HIGH/ RIDGE OVER THE NE'RN GULF IS TO WEAKEN AND WINDS OVER OUR AREA ARE TO CONTUNUE TO SUBSIDE TODAY. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO CONTINE NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY DIVERGENT THROUGH TOMORROW, THEN BECOME MORE DIVERGENT TOMORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF ID TO DRIFT WEST THEN MOVE SOUTHWEST TO OVER VERA CRUZ STATE. THE HIGH LEVEL FLOW IS TO BECOME SOUTHWEST OVER OUR AREA TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. THIS SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LOW THROUGH TOMORROW, THEN INCREASE OVER SOME AREAS DURING THE NIGHT. 

THE NAM AND WRF MODELS GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MODELS GO FOR LITTLE RAINFALL (0.01-0.10 INS/6HRS) OVER SOME AREAS TODAY AND TONIGHT, EXCEPT THE GFS SHOWING A MAX OF 0.25-0.50 INS/6HRS OVER THE COAST THIS MORNING, EVEN WITH LOW MOISTURE FORECAST FOR THAT TIME. FOR TOMORROW NIGHT, THE GFS AND WRF GO FOR AN INCREASE IN RAINFALL, WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THE RAINFALL LOW. 

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS ON WEDNESDAY, THEN A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP MAINLY OVER THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. 

MARINE:  EAST 10-20 KTS; CHOPPY - MODERATE ; 3-5 FT.

FCSTE:  RUDON