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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

 

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

DATE: THURSDAY 24 JULY 2014 (MORNING)  

WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUED GENERALLY GOOD ACROSS THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A FEW SHOWERS UP NORTH AND OVER THE N'RN CAYES. SAT IMAGERY SHOWED A FEW PATCHES OF MOD CONVECTIVE CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA. WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOWS RELATIVELY MOIST CONDITIONS ALOFT. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SHOW PWAT OF AROUND 45-50MM NEAR THE COUNTRY WITH THE HIGHER VALUES IN THE NORTH. 

SFC ANALYSIS (NHC-00Z) SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER THE NE GULF OF MEXICO WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING SW'WARD. A TROPICAL WAVE WAS NEAR THE E'RN CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. A LIGHT-MOD E'LY SFC FLOW DOMINATED BZE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN. THE FLOW WAS GENERALLY E'LY IN THE LOW LEVS (850-700MB). LIMITED MOISTURE WAS CONFINED IN THE LOW LEVS BELOW 850-700MB. THE MID-LEVS WERE GENERALLY DRY. AT THE UPPER LEVS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WAS CENTERED JUST SOUTH OF W'RN CUBA. A RELATIVELY MOIST AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT FLOW DOMINATED ALOFT. THE FLOW WAS ENE'LY AT 300MB AND WNW'LY AT 200MB.

THE GFS (00 AND 06Z) MODEL RUNS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO REMAIN E'LY TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN BECOME ENE'LY AFTER. MOISTURE LEVELS ARE FCST TO REMAIN GENERALLY LOW TODAY AND TONIGHT AND THEN MOISTURE INCREASES TOMORROW. PWAT VALUES ARE FCST TO EXCEED 55MM IN THE SOUTH AT THAT TIME. THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE E'RN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE RATHER SLOWLY AND WILL STILL BE EAST OF THE COUNTRY ON SATURDAY EVENING. HOWEVER AS MENTIONED BEFORE MOISTURE AND LOW LEV CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE  AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM. THIS IS LARGELY DUE TO THE UPPER LEV FEATURE REFLECTING AT THE LOW LEVS AND SUPPORTING THE WINDS BACKING TO THE E-NE. THIS LOW ALOFT WILL MEANDER OVER THE YUCATAN CHANNEL AND SUPPORT GENERLLY DIVERGENT AND UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ALOFT..ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH. UPPER INSTABLILITY IS FCST TO INCREASE SATURDAY MORNING. THE OVERALL SCENARIIO FAVOURS GENERALLY GOOD WEATHER TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAINFALL VALUES IN THE NORTH DUE TO THE PROXIMITY OF THE UPPER LOW/TROF. AN INCREASE IN CLOUDINESS, SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IS THEN EXPECTED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

THE GFS GOES FOR RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.10 INS/6HRS OVER THE COUNTRY FOR THE NEXT 24-HOURS WITH ISOL MAX OF 0.25 INS/6HRS OVER N'RN AND CNTRL COASTAL AREAS THIS MORNING AND EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. AMOUNTS INCREASE TOMORROW PEAKING AT 1.0 INS/6HRS OVER CNTRL COASTAL AREAS AND DECREASE SLIGHTLY FRIDAY NIGHT. THE NAM KEEPS THE COUNTRY GENERALLY FREE OF RAINFALL FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

FORECAST: SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED WITH A BIT MORE IN THE NORTH. 

EXTENDED:  FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT IS FOR SOME CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE COUNTRY.

MARINE: WINDS: EAST 5-15 KTS . SEAS: LIGHT CHOP - CHOPPY . WAVES: 2-4 FT

FORECASTER:   R. Gordon