NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SATURDAY 18TH MAY (MIDDAY)  

OUR WEATHER CONTINUED MOSTLY SUNNY THIS MORNING.

SATPIX IMAGERY (VIS) RESOLVED FAIR WX CUMULUS CLOUDS OVER BZE AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING. BZE RADAR CONTINUED TO SHOW THE COUNTRY QUITE DEVOID OF ANY MAJOR CLOUD FORMATIONS. WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOWED.DRY AIR COVERING BZE, NRN GUATEMALA, HONDURAS AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN.MOISTURE WAS NOTED INVADING EL SALVADOR AND THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.THE SRN PORTION OF CNTRL AMERICA WAS VERY MOIST WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG THE COAST OF COSTA RICA.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 18-12Z DEFINED A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE (1023hPa) WITH AXIS ALONG 31N73W TO 22N98W EXTENDING SW ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND THE NE GULFOMEX. MEAN SFC FLOW OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND BZE WAS E’LY.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 12Z DATA SUGGESTS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE E’LY FLOW GENERATED BY THE SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN.MOISTURE CONTENT IN THE LOW LVLS REMAINS LOW.THEREFORE SHWR DEVELOPMENT WILL BE NOTHING MORE THAN ISOLATED.

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa) THE CNTR OF AN ANTICYCLONE FEATURE IS CURRENTLY OVER THE S-CNTRL GULFOMEX.THIS FEATURE WILL MAINTAIN A LIGHT NE’LY FLOW OVER BZE AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY.

AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) THE NW’LY FLOW OVER BZE IS CONTROLLED BY AN ANTICYCLONE FEATURE CNTRD OVER THE SE CARIBBEAN. PATTERN WILL BE GENERALLY CONVERGENT.

PRECIP MODEL FCSTS SUGGEST VERY SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS WEEKEND.

FORECAST:    MOSTLY SUNNY THISA FTERNOON AND TOMORROW;D PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT;SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

EXTENDED: (MONDAY):CONTINUING WARM AND MOSTLY DRY WEATHER. 

MARINE: WINDS: EAST TO SOUTHEAST  5-15 KT.; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES: 2-4 FT.; ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FORECASTER: F.Tench Jr.