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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  SUN. JAN 25 2014 (EVENING)                  

SKIES WERE   PARTLY CLOUDY OVER THE NORTH, BUT VERY CLOUDY OVER THE SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED DRY AIR MOVING  OVER BELIZE FROM THE SOUTHWEST.

AT UPPER-LEVELS A  RIDGE/TROUGH FEATURE SUPPORTS A SW'LY FLOW OVER BELIZE AT 200MB  AND A NW'LY FLOW AT  300MB.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST  AND A SE'LY FLOW PREVAILS. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST AND TROUGHING SUPPORTS A NW'LY FLOW. AT THE SURFACE, THE 18Z ANALYSIS SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN AND GULF  THAT SUPPORTED A LIGHT TO MODERATE NE'LY FLOW. A 1022MB HIGH CENTER WAS PLACED IN THE NW GULF. A STATIONARY  FRONT WAS PLACED FROM NORTHERN HONDURAS TO  EASTERN  CUBA, WHERE IT MERGED  WITH A COLD FRONT.

SUN NIGHT AND MON: 

THE TROUGH/ RIDGE FEATURE ALOFT WILL MAINTAIN THE  SW'LY FLOW DURING THIS CYCLE AT 200MB, , BUT THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE WEST AT 300MB. AT 700MB, MOISTURE DRIES OUT, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP  TO THE NW. AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE  NW. AT THE SURFACE, A SURGE OF COLD AIR(COLD FRONT) MOVES SOUTHWARD FROM THE USA, PUSHING THE COLD FRONT NEAR HONDURAS FURTHER SOUTH. THE WINDS WILL BACK UP TO THE  NW TONIGHT. BOTH GFS AND NAM RAINFALL MODELS SHOW NO RAINFALL.

MON NIGHT AND TUES:

AT UPPER-LEVELS, THE FLOW REMAINS SW'LY AT 200MB  AND W'LY AT 300MB DURING THIS CYCLE.  AT 700MB CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY,  WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NE.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE  LEVELS INCREASE OVER THE SOUTH THEN DECREASE. THE FLOW REMAINS FROM THE NW. AT THE SURFACE, THE COLD FRONT(COLD  SURGE) CROSSES BELIZE ; THE WINDS REMAIN FROM THE  N/NW. GFS SHOWS .01IN/3HRS OVER THE SOUTH COAST MON NIGHT, DRYING OUT THE REST OF THE CYCLE. . NAM SHOWS NO RAINFALL.

FORECAST: VARIABLY CLOUDY AND COOL WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK:  (MON NIGHT AND TUES.) SIMILAR WEATHR CONDITIONS.

MARINE: WINDS:  N/NW 10-20 KT . SEAS: CHOPPY-MODERATE. WAVES: 4-6 FT.  LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

FORECASTER:  Wellington