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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 22ND MARCH 2017 (AFTERNOON)

THE WEATHER WAS MAINLY FAIR AND DRY ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS CONTINUE RELATIVELY DRY OVER AND EAST OF BELIZE AND THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA, WITH THE LATEST PWAT IMAGE SHOWING PWAT OF 25-35MM. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 12Z (NHC) SHOWED A 1021MB HIGH OVER THE N-CNTRL GULF OF MEXICO AND AN EAST-NORTHEAST FLOW OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND YUCATAN/ BELIZE. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDED OVER THE ATLANTIC TO THE SE BAHAMAS, AND A 1009MB LOW WAS OVER NW COLOMBIA. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WAS CONVERGENT, WITH A BROAD TROF AT 300MB EAST OF BELIZE WITH AXIS FROM THE N'RN BAHAMAS TO NICARAGUA. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE MOISTURE TO REMIAN LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH OVER THE N'RN GULF OF MEXICO IS TO WEAKEN, BUT A RIDGE WILL CONTINUE OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO EXTENDING FROM A HIGH OVER THE E'RN UNITED STATES. THIS WILL MAINTAIN THE EAST-NORTHEAST SURFACA AND LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER OUR AREA THROUGH FRIDAY. THE GFS SHOWS THAT THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WILL CONTINUE CONVERGENT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. THE UPPER TROF TO MEANVER OVER THE AREA, BUT REMAIN EAST OF BELIZE. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE LOW/ ISOLATED. THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION IS OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH FRIDAY. THE MODELS GO FOR LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE WRF, HOWEVER, SHOWS SOME LIGHT RAINFALL MOVING IN OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND DEVELOPING OVER THE SOUTH EARLY TOMORORROW. THIS IS SUPPORTED BY SOME CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS MOVING TOWARDS THE EXTREME NORTH AS SEEN ON SAT PICS AND RADAR IMAGES. 

FORECAST:  MOSTLY SUNNY DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED; WITH THE CHANCE FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AND OVER THE EXTREME SOUTH EARLY TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK:  MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH THE CHANCE OF ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST-NORTHEAST 5-15KTS; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES: 3-4 FT.

FCSTR:  RUDON