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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: MONDAY 1ST SEPTEMBER 2014 (EVENING)  

ISOLATED THUNDERSTRMS AFFECTED THE W'RN BORDER AREA NEAR BENQUE EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND SOME LIGHT RAIN LATER IN THE AFTERNOON / EVENING. ELSEWHERE, LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL OCCURRED. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 18Z (NHC) SHOWED A 1009MB LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE ALONG 30N EXTENDING TO THE SE UNITED STATES. AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILED OVER THE EXTREME NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND YUCATAN PENINSULA AND TROPICAL WAVES WERE ALONG 71W AND 59W. THE LOW OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WAS UPGRADED TO TD #5 THIS AFTERNOON AND IS FORECAST TO MOVE WNW AND STRENGTHEN A BIT. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN WAS STILL DIVERGENT, BUT LESS THAN EARLIER. AN UPPER RIDGE EXTENDED TO OUR AREA FROM THE WEST AND A TUTT WAS OVER THE CARIBBEAN ALONG 77W FROM A LOW OVER THE BAHAMAS. THE MOISTURE WAS STILL RELATIVELY HGH WITH PWAT JUST ABOVE 50MM, BUT GRADUALLY DECREASES TO THE EAST. A LOT OF THE MOISTURE LIES ABOVE A DRY SLOT AROUND 700MB, SO THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS LIKELY RELATIVELY LOW. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE SURFACE FLOW TO GRADUALLY BACK TO THE EAST THROUGH TOMORROW AS TD #5 MOVES FARTHER AWAY, AND THE SURFACE RIDGE PERSISTS OVER THE SE UNITED STATES. THE MOISTURE IS TO DECREASE FURTHER TOMORROW EVENING. THE GFS ALSO SHOWS THAT THE UPPER PATTERN WILL BECOME LESS DIVERGENT TOMORROW NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY, HOWEVER SOME MID LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL TEND TO LIMIT DEEP CONVETION TONIGHT AND TOMORORW. THE UPPER TROF (TUTT) DRIFTS TO E'RN HONDURAS BY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE SMALL CRAFT CAUTION IS LIFTED AS THE GFS AND OBSERVATIONS SHOWED A DECREASE FROM THIS AFTERNOON. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE GFS FORECASTS RAINFALL OF 0.10-0.25 INS/6HRS  OVER THE COAST TONIGHT AND 0.25-0.50 INS/6HRS TOMORORW MORNING, WITH A SIMILAR PATTERN TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. THE NAM IS MORE AGRESSIVE WITH RAINFALL TONIGHT, THEN GOES FOR LESS THAN THE GFS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE NVG IS SIMILAR TO THE GFS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT GOES FOR LITTLE OR NO RAIN OTHERWISE. 

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP MOSTLY OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT THEN MAINLY INLAND TOMORROW.

EXTENDED:  SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MARINE:  EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-20KTS. MODERATE. 4-5FT.

FCSTR: RUDON