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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: SATURDAY 06 FEBRUARY 2016 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE  OVERCAST THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED LIGHT RAIN MAINLY OVER THE NORTH OF THE COUNTRY. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS A BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE EASTERN PACIFIC  ACROSS CENTRAL MEXICO AND THE GULF, OVER FLORIDA AND BEYOND, ASSOCIATED WITH A JET STREAM.

 AT UPPER LEVELS THE  FLOW IS W-NW'LY DUE TO  RIDGING OVER THE AREA.  THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY NEUTRAL.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST  AND  THE FLOW IS SW'LY. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS ARE MOIST, WHILE THE FLOW IS NW'LY. THE 18Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWS TROUGHING  OVER THE NORTH- WESTERN CARIBBEAN, SUPPORTING A MOIST AND GUSTY NW'LY FLOW ACROSS BELIZE.  A COLD FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR THE BAY OF CAMPECHE TO TEXAS. A 1016MB LOW CENTER WAS PLACED ALONG THE COAST OF BELIZE, WHILE A STATIONARY FRONT WAS PLACED JUST EAST OF THIS LOW CENTER TO CENTRAL CUBA AND BEYOND.

SAT NIGHT AND SUN:

AT UPPER LEVELS RIDGING MAINTIANS THE NW'LY FLOW DURING THIS CYCLE. AT 700MB, MOISTURE DRIES OUT BY THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NW.  AT 850MB MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH, WHILE THE FLOW  PERSIST FROM THE NW.   AT THE SURFACE, THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE  NORTH AND NORTHWEST, WITH SPEEDS INCREASING OVER THE AREA.  THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS BELIZE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW, BRINGING DRIER AIR OVER THE AREA. GFS SHOWS .01-.10IN/3HRS INITIALLY, THEN DRIES OUT. NAM SHOWS SIMILAR AMOUNTS AND A SIMILAR TREND.

SUN NIGHT AND MON:

AT UPPER LEVELS THE FLOW VEERS TO THE W AND SW, DURING THIS CYCLE AS A TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WHILE THE FLOW BACKS UP TO THE WEST.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN HIGH , WHILE THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE NW. AT THE SURFACE, THE FLOW PERSIST FROM THE NW AND SPPEDS DECREASE.  GFS AND NAM SHOW NO RAINFALL. 

FORECAST:CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN EARLY TONIGH, THEN  DECREASING. SKIES WILL BE VARIABLY CLOUDY TOMORROW, WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK:  FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MON S FOR VARIABLY CLOUDY AND COOL WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

MARINE: WINDS: N-NW 15-25 KT WITH HIGHER GUSTS; SEAS: ROUGH;  WAVES:6-8 FT. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF RAIN DECREASING.

FORECASTER: Wellington