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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 26TH APRIL 2017 (MORNING)

MAINLY FAIR, WARM AND DRY WEATHER CONTIUED LAST NIGHT AND EARLY THIS MORNING. LOW TEMPS THIS MORNING RANGED FROM 81F OVER THE COAST TO 68F INLAND. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 06Z (NHC) SHOWED A TROF FROM S'RN TEXAS TO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND S'RN MEXICO. THE ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDED TO CUBA, AND A MODERATE SOUTHEAST GRADIENT WAS OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN WAS WEAKLY CONVERGENT OVER OUR AREA, WITH MAINLY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND A BROAD/ FLAT RIDGE FROM S'RN MEXICO TO THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN. THE MOISTURE HAS INCREASED SLIGHTLY SINCE YESTERDAY, BUT MOSTLY CONFINED BELOW 850MB. THE SOUNDING SHOWED A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE THAN YESTERDAY(SHOW -0.46, LIFT -2.25, KINX 20.3, CAPE 1365, PWAT 41.0). 

THE GFS (00Z & 06Z MODEL RUNS) FORECASTS THE MOISTURE TO REMAIN LOW TODAY THROUGH TOMORROW, THEN INCREASE SLIGHTLY EARLY FRIDAY. THE SURFACE TROF AND RIDGE PATTERN WILL PERSIST AND MAINTAIN THE EAST-SOUTHEAST SURFACE/ LOW LEVEL FLOW. THE GRADIENT IS TO GRADUALLY TIGHTEN THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE PATTERN REMAINS WEAKLY CONVERGENT TO NEUTRAL TODAY AND TOMORROW, THEN BECOMES WEAKLY DIVERGENT TOMORROW NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES SOMEWHAT INTO THE E'RN GULF ON THURSDAY, WITH THE AXIS EAST OF BELIZE. THE UPPER FLOW BECOMES WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY. THIS SCENARIO SUGGESTS THAT SEASONALLY WARM AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW. 

THE NAM, NVG AND WRF GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH TOMORROW. THE MODELS GO FOR TEMPS AS HIGH AS 101F OVER THE INTERIOR TODAY AND TOMORROW. THE MODELS SHOW NO RAINFALL FOR TODAY, WITH THE GFS AND WRF GOING FOR A SMALL AREA OF LIGHT AMOUNTS INLAND/ BORDER REGION TOMORROW. THE MODELS GO FOR SMALL MAXIMA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL INLAND ON FRIDAY (& SAT & SUN). 

FORECAST:  MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. VERY LITTLE OR NO RAIN IS EXPECTED. 

OUTLOOK:  CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR AND WARM. 

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST-SOUTHEAST 10-20 KT; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES: 3-4 FT.

FCSTR:  RUDON