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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

 

FORECAST DISCUSSION

 

DATE: SUNDAY 23RD NOVEMBER 2014 (MORNING) 

CLEAR AND  COOL WEATHER PREVAILED ACROSS THE COUNTRY LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.TTmn=22.9°C/73.3°F.

 SATPIX IMAGERY (IR) RESOLVED SMALL PATCHES OF LOW LVL CUMULUS CELLS OVER  THE MAINLAND AND COASTAL AREAS.CLOUD DRIFT WAS  NW'LY. WATER VAPOUR  IMAGERY  DEFINED MOISTURE  COVERING MUCH OF SRN MEXICO,THE YUCATAN PENINSULA AND  PORTIONS OF BZE. A LARGE EXPANSE OF DRY AIR FROM THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WAS  SLOWLY ERODING MOISTURE OVER BZE AND  THE REMAINDER OF CNTRL AMERICA.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 23-06Z  DEFINED A DEFINED AN ELONGATED ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE THAT EXTENDED WEST ACROSS THE SRN UNITED STATES.WEAK RIDGING WAS NOTED ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN.PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WAS SUPPORTING A SE'LY SFC FLOW.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 00Z DATA SHOWED THE ATLANTIC SFC HIGH MAINTAINING THE SE'LY RETURN FLOW ACROSS THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND BZE THROUGH MONDAY.AT THE SAME TIME A COLD FRONT WILL ENTER THE NW GULFOMEX THIS EVENING. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT CREATED BY THE ATLANTIC HIGH WILL MAINTAIN DOMINANCE FOR THE SE'LY AIRFLOW ON MONDAY AS WELL AS TUESDAY MORNING.THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING THE RIDGING OF A CONTINENTAL SFC HIGH OVER THE WRN GULOMEX  WILL EMERGE TO START PUSHING THE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THROUGH WEDNESDAY. UNTIL THEN SHWR DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN ISOLATED.  

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa)SE'LY WINDS PREVAIL AT THIS LVL IN ASSOCIATION WITH A NARROW AND EXTENSIVE  RIDGE FROM THE TROPICAL  ATLANTIC ACROSS THE GREATER ANTILLES TO NEAR BZE.

 AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) AN UPPER LVL HIGH(RIDGE) WITH CENTER OVER THE WRN AND CNTRL CARIBBEAN WAS GENERATING A STEADY SW'LY FLOW ACROSS BZE AND  THE WRN CARIBBEAN.THIS FLOW WILL CONTINUE RELATIVELY UNCHANGED THROUGH MONDAY.PATTERN WILL REMAIN  LARGELY CONVERGENT.

 PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS  SUGGESTING LIMITED RAINFALL FOR COASTAL  BZE TODAY AND TOMORROW.THE NAM SOLUTION IS ALSO COMPARING WELL WITH THE GFS.  

FORECAST:   MOSTLY SUNNY TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  (TUESDAY):MAINLY GOOD WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE:  WINDS: E/SE  5-15KT.;SEAS:CHOPPY; WAVES: 2-4FT; ISOLATED SHOWERS.

FORECASTER: F.Tench Jr.