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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: FRIDAY 27TH MAY 2016 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE SUNNY ACROSS  THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON.  RADAR IMAGES SHOWED ISOLATED SHOWERS. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED MOIST AIR OVER THE  GULF OF MEXICO, SOUTHERN, CENTRAL AMERICA, PARTS OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN CARIBBEAN.

AT UPPER LEVELS A NW'LY FLOW PREVAILS AS A RESULT OF RIDGING AND TROUGHING OVER MEXICO, CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBERAN BASIN. THE PATTERN IS CURRENTLY CONVERGENT. AT 700MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS CURRENTLY  NELY, AS A RESULT OF RIDGING.  AT 850MB CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS FROM THE EAST. THE 18Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED RIDGING OVER THE NW CARRIBEAN FROM THE ATLANTIC HIGH. A 1004MB LOW CENTER WAS OBSERVED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO. A WEAK TROUGH EXTENDED SOUTHWARD FROM THE CENTER.

THE SECOND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMED AROUND 2100Z THIS AFTERNOON.IT WAS LOCATED NEAR 28.5N 74.7W OR ABOUT 435 MILES SE OF CHARLESTON, SOUTH CAROLINA. 

DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS, THE FLOW AT UPPER LEVELS REMAINS GENERALLY FROM THE NW. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONVERGENT TO  NEUTRAL. AT THE  LOWER LEVELS, 700MB, DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. THE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE  NE. AT 850MB, MOISTURE WILL FLUCTUATE, WHILE THE FLOW BACK UP TO  THE NORTHEAST.  AT THE  SURFACE THE FLOW WILL PERSIST FROM THE  EAST TONIGHT THEN BACKS UP TO THE NORTHEAST TOMORROW. GFS AND NAM SHOW BETWEEN  0.0IN-.01IN/3HRS DURING THE 24-48HR PERIOD.

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY AND WARM TONIGHT; SUNNY AND HOT TOMORROW. SHOWERS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  A SIMILAR TREND OCCURS ON SAT NIGHT AND SUN.

MARINE:  WINDS:  EAST 5-15 KNOTS; SEAS: CHOPPY; LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

FORECASTER: Wellington