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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE: SUNDAY 22ND JANUARY 2017 (EVENING)

SKIES WERE CLEAR AND SUNNY THIS AFTERNOON. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED LIGHT ISOLATED SHOWERS OVE THE EXTREME COROZAL DISTRICT. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWED DRY AIR OVER THE REGION. 

AT UPPER LEVELS, RIDGING/TROUGHING  OVER THE AREA SUPPORTED A W-SW'LY FLOW OVER BELIZE. THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WERE DRY  AND TROUGHING OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO SUPPORTED A NW'LY FLOW. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS WERE DRY AND THE FLOW WAS NW'LY. THE 18Z SURFACE CHART(NHC) SHOWED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM NEAR VERA CRUZ TO A LOW CENTER NEAR THALAHASSEE. A 1016MB HIGH CENTER WAS OBSERVED EAST OF THE BAHAMAS. A LIGHT SE'LY FLOW PREVAILED. A LIGHT TO MODERATE E-SE'LY FLOW PREVAILED. THE 00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWED PWAT'S VALUE TO BE 21.01, KINX'S 9.10 AND CAPE'S 296.5.

DURING THE NEXT 24-48HRS, THE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME W-NW'LY AS A RIDGE BUILDS AT 300MB. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CONVERGENT TO NEUTRAL. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST.  AT 850MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW WILL VEER  TO THE  SOUTHWEST.  AT THE SURFACE THE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE COUNTRY TONIGHT WITH WINDS BACKING  TO THE NW AND BECOMING GUSTY. BOTH GFS AND NAM SHOW 0.0IN/3HRS FOR THE ENTIRE PERIOD.

 

FORECAST: CLEAR SPELLS TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

OUTLOOK:  FOR MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT IS FOR MAINLY FAIR, WINDY AND COOL CONDITIONS WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.  

MARINE: WINDS: NORTH TO NORTHWEST 10-20 KNOTS AND GUSTY ; SEAS: CHOPPY BECMG ROUGH AT TIMES *SMALL CRAFT CAUTION*  ;WAVES: 3-5 FT. LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL.

FCSTR: Wellington