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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE: SUNDAY 4TH DECEMBER 2016 (AFTERNOON)

FAIR WEATHER CONTINUED ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS NOTED ON RADAR IMAGERY. SAT (VIS) IMAGERY SHOWED SCT/BKN CLOUD COVER OF FAIR WEATHER CU CLOUDS ACROSS THE COUNTRY. SAT (WV) IMAGERY SHOWED THAT MID-UPPER LEVS REMAIN RATHER DRY OVER BZE AND E'RN/CNTRL GULF OF MEX. LATEST (16Z) SAT PWAT IMAGE SHOWED A SLIGHT DECREASE IN PWAT OVER BZE SINCE THIS MORNING. PWAT WAS NEAR 49MM, WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH AND NORTH.

12Z SFC ANALYSIS SHOWED A FRONTAL SYS ENTERING THE GULF OF MEX, EXTENDING OVER THE SE'RN USA, AND OVER CNTRL MEX AND THE NW'RN GULF. THE CF OVER THE ATL CONTINUED TO EXTEND SW'WARD, WITH STNRY TAIL EXTENDING OVER THE BAHAMAS. SFC TROF ALSO EXTENDED OVER THE PUERTO RICO/DOM REP AREA FROM THE BASE OF TROF ASSOCIATED WITH THIS CF. THIS TROF WAS REFLECTED THROUGHOUT THE LEVS. ALSO REFLECTED THROUGHOUT THE LEVS IS ANTICYCLONE/RIDGING WHICH DOMINATES THE CARIB BASIN, THE GULF OF MEX, AND PART OF THE W'RN NORTH ATL. THIS RIDGE CONTINUES TO PROVIDE SUPPRESSION FOR MUCH DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY OVER BZE. THE S-SW'LY AIRFLOW ALOFT OVER BZE IS ALSO SUGGESTED TO BE WEAKLY CONVERGENT TO NEUTRAL. SIMILAR FLOW IS SUGGESTED TO CONTINUE ALOFT, WHILE SFC FLOW IS SUGGESTED TO CONTINUE E-SE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THE MODELS GFS, NAM, WRF SUGGEST LITTLE TO NO PRECIP OVER BZE DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, WITH JUST A SLIGHT INCREASE LATE TUESDAY, MOSTLY OVER INLAND AREAS.     

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED.

OUTLOOK:  FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TO MIDDAY ON TUESDAY IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER, WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWERY ACTIVITY ON TUESDAY.

MARINE: WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KT; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES: 3-4 FT. 

FCSTR:  A. Guy