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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SUNDAY 19TH APRIL 2015 (MORNING)                  

MAINLY FAIR AND DRY WX PREVAILED ACROSS THE COUNTRY DURING THE NIGHT. WV IMAGERY SHOWED MID-UPPER LVL MOISTURE ACROSS N'RN CENTRAL AMERICA - NW'RN CARIBBEAN - S'RN MEXICO / YUCATAN AND THE GLFMEX WHILE MOSTLY DRY AIR PREVAILED ACROSS S'RN REGIONS OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND MOST OF THE CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (07Z) SHOW LOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 37-47mm WITH HIGHEST VALUES NEAR THE BAY ISLANDS. SKEW-T (12Z) SOUNDING SHOWED A RELATIVELY DRY AND STABLE ENVIRON WITH A MOD INVERSION (SUBS) BELOW 850hPa AND PW 38.22mm, KI 8.90, SHOW 4.62, LIFTED -4.11 QAND CAPE 2487j/kg.  

SFC ANALYSIS (TPC - 19 / 06Z) HAD A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DOMINATING MEXICO AND THE GLF WITH A SERIES OF TROUGHS OVER THE GLFMEX. THE N'RN ATLANTIC HIGH EXTENDED A RIDGE TO THE SE'RN BAHAMAS AND THE SFC PATTERN SUPPORTS AND MAINTAINS A MOD AND AT TIMES GUSTY ESE'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. AT LOW LVLS (850-700hPa) A RIDGE FROM THE EAST DOMINATES AND ALSO SUPPORTS A SE'LY FLOW WHILE AT MID LVLS A HIGH WAS CENTERED OVER YUCATAN - BZE - GUATEMALA WITH THE FLOW CONTINUING SE'LY. AT UPPER LVLS A WEAK RIDGE EXTENDE NORTH FROM THE E'RN PACIFIC - CENTRAL AMERICA - E'RN GLF AND INTO THE SE'RN USA WHILE A DEEP TROUGH WAS OVER THE SW'RN USA INTO E'RN MEXICO. THE UPPER LVL FLOW WAS W'LY AND THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL - WEAKLY DIVERGENT. 

 

THE GFS (00Z) MODEL RUN FCST LOW SFC PRESSURES WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE OVER MEXICO AND THE GLF AND WILL MAINTAIN THE ESE'LY FLOW AT THE SFC - 850hPa THIS CYRLE, WHILE AT 700hPa LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL PREVAIL DUE TO A WEAKER RIDGE PATTERN. LOW LVL MOISTURE IS FCST TO CONTINUE LIMITED DURING THIS 3-DAY CYCLE WITH A WEAK SURGE IN LOW LVL CONVERGENCE TODAY THEN OCCURRING IN A DIURNAL PATTERN THE FOLLOWING TWO DAYS. AT UPPER LVLS THE RIDGE IS TO BUILD BACK IN FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE CYCLE. THE W'LY FLOW IS TO BECMG NW'LY AFTER MID-DAY TODAY AND THE WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN IS TO BECMG INCREASINGLY CONVERGENT. IN THIS PATTERN LITTLE OR NO SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED WITH A FURTHER INCREASE IN DAYTIME HEATING. INTENSE HEATING OF INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH FORCING BY THE ELEVATED TERRAIN IS LIKELY TO SUPPORT ISOL MOD CONVECTION DURING THE FCST PERIOD BUT THIS BECMGS LESS LIKELY BY DAY THREE AS UPPER LVLS BECMG MORE CONVERGENT.

THE MODELS (GFS, NVG) GENERALLY AGREE WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. THE NAM IS A BIT MORE ACTIVE WITH LATE AFTERNOON CONVECTION INLAND AND SUGGEST ISOLATED MAX OF .25ins TODAY AND .50ins TOMORROW.

FORECAST: MOSTLY SUNNY WITH WARM CONDITIONS TODAY AND CLEAR TONIGHT. MORROW. EXCEPT FOR THE CHANCE OF AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INLAND, LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL IS EXPECTED, .

OUTLOOK:  FOR MON. AND MON. NIGHT IS FOR SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL.

MARINE:  WINDS: E-SE 10-20 KTS. WITH OCCNL HIGHER GUSTS.; SEAS: MODERATE - ROUGH.; WAVES: 4-7 FT.; SMALL CRAFT CAUTION.  

FORECASTER:    M.  GENTLE.