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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SATURDAY 19 APRIL 2014 (MORNING)   

WEATHER CONDITIONS DURING THE NIGHT TURNED OUT QUITE GOOD FOR MUCH OF THE COUNNTRY.LIGHT MORNING SHWRS STARTED TO DEVELOP ALONG COASTAL BZE.

SATPIX IMAGERY (IR) RESOLVED  SEVERAL SMALL CLUSTERS OF SHOWRS COURSING WEST TO THE COAST OF BZE. BZE RADAR LOCATED THE SHWR CELLS WITH MODERATE INTENSITY  OVER NRN,CNTRL AND COASTAL BZE.WATER VAPOUR IMAGERY MAINTAINED  A STEADY INFLUEX OF MOISTURE ACROSS  THE SRN AND SW GULFOMEX ACROSS SRN MEXICO AND  PENINSULA. MOISTURE FROM THE EPAC WAS ALSO INVADING CNTRL AMERICA/BZE AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 19-06Z DEFINED A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SW FROM A LOW PRESSURE(1010hPa) CNTR  NEAR 30°N83°W OVER THE NRN GULFOMEX. THE FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS THE FLORIDA TO THE NE CORNER OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. LIGHT NE'L Y SFC FLOW PREVAILED OVER  BZE AND COASTAL WATERS.

SKEW-T PROFILE FOR 19-12Z SHOWED A MOIST LYR BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700hPa.ABOVE THIS LVL THE ENVIRONMENT IS DRIER.MEAN FLOW BETWEEN THE SFC AND 700hPa IS E/NE'LY. PWAT= 401MM.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON  00Z DATA IS INDICATING THE NE'LY FLOW WILL PERSIST OVER BZE AND COASTAL WATERS  THROUGH THE WEEKEND.THIS IS A CONSEQUENCE  OF THE CLOSE APPROACH OF THE COLD FRONT TO BZE AND WEAK RIDGING PERSISTING OVER THE GULFOMEX. INSTABILITY CREATED BY THIS SITUATION WILL SUPPORT  SOME   UNSETTLED WX ESPECIALLY INLAND AND IN THE NORTH THIS AFTERNOON AS WELL AS SUNDAY.

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa). LIGHT   WINDS WILL PREVAIL OVER BZE AT THIS LVL.THIS  IS A CONSEQUENCE OF AN EXTENSIVE RIDGE STRUNG ACROSS THE  SRN MEXICO/BZE.

AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa)NWLY  WINDS WILL CONTINUE  OVER CNTRL AMERICA AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN TODAY.LIGHT SW'LY FLOW WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY. PATTERN WILL BE  CONVERGENT.

PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS SUGGESTING  SOME RAINFALL FOR BZE AND COASTAL WATERS THIS MORNING.  RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED  TO INCREASE FOR INLAND  AND NRN  BZE DURING THIS AFTEROON/EVENING.RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL BE IN THE VCNTY OF 5 T0 15MM FOR INLAND  AND NRN BZE.    

FORECAST:   SUNNY WITH CLOUDY PERIODS TODAY AND PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT. SHOWERS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED  WITH THE CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM INLAND OR IN THE NORTH

EXTENDED: (MONDAY MORNING):CLOUDY SPELLS WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOSTLY OVER NORTHERN AND INLAND AREAS.

MARINE: WINDS: E/NE 5-15 KNOTS.;  SEAS: CHOPPY.; WAVES:  2-4 FT. 

FORECASTER:   F.Tench Jr.