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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: FRIDAY 6TH MAY 2016 (MORNNING)

SKIES WERE PARTLY CLOUDY TO CLOUDY LAST NIGHT, WITH SOME SHOWERS EXPERIENCED OVER THE COUNTRY. RADAR AND SAT IMAGERY SUGGESTS CONFLUENCING OF WINDS. ALONG WITH THE ATM STILL BEING RELATIVELY MOIST, THIS PRODUCED A LINE OF MODERATE TO STRONG SHOWERS FORMING TO THE NW OF THE COUNTRY WHICH MOVED SE'WARDS LATE LAST NIGHT. THIS CAUSED MUCH OF THE N'RN INLAND AREAS, THE COAST AND OVER THE SEA TO EXPERIENCE SHOWERS. 12Z SOUNDING SHOWS A RELATIVELY LOW PWAT OF 36.5MM, WITH ALL INDICES CORRESPONDING TO A STABLE ATM. SAT (WV) IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA, BEHIND THE CF. 

SFC ANALYSIS (06Z/12Z) SHOWS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVER THE W'RN GULF OF MEX, EXTENDING DOWN TO N'RN CNTR'L AMERICA. A GENERALLY N-NW'RLY SFC FLOW DOMINATED THE AREA THIS MORNING, BUT A MORE N-NE'LY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER BZE THIS AFTERNOON. THE CF WHICH PASSED OVER THE AREA THIS WEEK HAS BECOME A STATIONARY FRONT, AND IS AFFECTING THE W'RN ATL REGION, WITH CF EXTENDING INTO THE CARIBBEAN FROM EAST OF CUBA TO NICARAGUA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DOMINATES THE REMAINDER OF THE ATL. AN UPPER LEV ANTICYLCONE STILL DOMINATES THE EPAC, WITH RIDGE EXTENDING FROM EPAC, SOUTH OF MEX, N'WARDS TO SOUTHWESTERN USA. AS A RESULT, THE UPPER LEV'S CONTINUE TO HAVE A NW'RLY FLOW OVER THE AREA, AND THE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES TO BE CONVERGENT, SUPPRESSING CONVECTION.   

THE GFS (12Z, 18Z) MODEL RUNS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO GRADUALLY RETURN TO GENERALLY E'RLY WITHIN THE NEXT 12-36 HRS. RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS ALSO SUGGESTED TO DECREASE, BECOMING ONLY ISOLATED WITHIN THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. LOW LEV CONVERGENCE AND DAYTIME HEATING WOULD BE THE MAIN CONTRIBUTORS TO THIS AS MID/UPPER LEV MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO BE LOW DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. 

THE MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH SHOWERY ACTIVITY DECREASING LATER TODAY, AND THEN CONTINUE LOW DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HRS. 

FORECAST: CLOUDY OR PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS OVER THE SEA AND IN THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, BECOMING ISOLATED LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT.  

OUTLOOK: FOR SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT IS FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

MARINE:  WINDS: N-NE 5-15 KTS.; SEAS: CHOPPY.; WAVES: 3-4 FT. 

FORECASTER:   R. Gordon / A. Guy