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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: THURSDAY 30TH OCTOBER 2014 (MORNING) 

CLOUDY SKIES AND PERIODIC SHWRS OCCURRED ALONG COASTAL BZE LAST NIGHT AND THIS MORNING.

 SATPIX IMAGERY (IR)DEFINED  SEVERAL BANDS OF CLOUDS AND SHWRS ALONG THE COAST OF BZE.R THE MAINLAND WAS COVERED BY MOSTLY LYRD CLOUDS . WATER VAPOUR  IMAGERY  SHOWED MOIST AIR COVERING SRN MEXICO,BZE AND THE WRN CARIBBEAN.MOIST AIR AND AREAS OF DDEP CONVECTION WAS ALSO OBSERVED OVER PORTIONS OF GUATEMALA AND THE COAST OF EL SALVADOR.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 30-06Z  DEFINED AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER CNTRL GUATEMALA. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN WAS SUPPORTING A LIGH TNE'LY SFC FLOW.A COLD FRONT EXTENDED ACROSS  THE NRN GULFOMEX TO THE TEXAS COAST. A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CNTRL CARIBBEAN WITH AXIS FROM 18°N71°W TO 11°N72°W.

SKEW-T PROFILE FOR 30-12Z  APPEARED MOIST  BETWEEN SFC AND UPPER LVLS(300hPa). PWAT WAS 59.1MM(HIGH);LIFTED=-1.90(MARGINAL);KINX=-33.1(MODERATE);SHOW=0.60(STABLE).WIND PROFILE WAS LIGHT NE'LY BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850hPa THEN E'LY BETWEEN 850hPa AND 700hPa.

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 00Z DATA IS SUGGESTING THE MAINTENANCE   OF  AMPLE MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 500hPa THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING.MEAN FLOW BETWEEN THE SFC AND 500hPa WILL ALSO REMAIN NE'LY THROUGH FRIDAY. THROUGH TO SATURDAY THE FLOW WILL BACK MORE TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST .COASTAL SHWRS AND PERIODS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND FRIDAY.

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa)LIGHT .N'LY FLOW AT THIS LVL WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING.THROUGH TO FRIDAY  EVENING  THE FLOW WILL BACK TO THE WEST.

 AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) AN UPPER LVL HIGH(RIDGE) WITH CENTER OVER SRN MEXICO AND CNTRL AMERICA IS GENERATING A STEADY W'LY FLOW ACROSS BZE AND  THE WRN CARIBBEAN.NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FLOW HERE IS EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.PATTERN WILL REMAIN DIVERGENT AT 300hPa AND CONVERGENT AT 200hPa.

 PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS  SUGGESTING MOST RAINFALL WILL OCCUR OVER SRN COASTAL BZE THROUGH FRIDAY.RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL RANGE BETWEEN 15-25MM FOR COASTAL AREAS. MUCH LESS RAINFALL IS EXPECTED FOR  THE MAINLAND.  

FORECAST: CLOUDY SKIES TODAY AND TONIGHT. SOME SHOWERS, ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN WILL OCCUR MAINLY OVER COASTAL AREAS. ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK: (SATURDAY):CONTINUING CLOUDY WITH A FEW SHOWERS AND PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER MOST AREAS.

MARINE:  WINDS: N/NE 5-15KT.;  SEAS: LIGHT  CHOP TO CHOPPY;  WAVES:1-3 FT. ; A FEW SHOWERS, PERIODS OF RAIN AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

FORECASTER: F.Tench Jr.