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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION  

DATE: SUNDAY 26TH FEBRUARY 2017 (EVENING)

SAT IMAGERY (VIZ) AND RADAR OBS SHOWED MAINLY FAIR WX PREVAILED ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH NO SIG SHOWER ACTIVITY. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE (23Z) SHOWED LOW AVAILABVLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE OF 25-35mm OVER COASTAL WATERS WITH HIGHER AMTS 40-50mm BETWEEN THE BAY ISLANDS AND THE CAYMANS. WV IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED SOME MOISTURE IN THIS AREA WITH MOSTLY DRY UPPER LVL CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE. SKEW-T (27 / 00Z) SOUNDING SHOWED A DRY AND STABLE ENVIRON WITH PW 28.25mm, KI 0.30, SHOW 11.31, LIFTED 0.76 AND CAPE 881.8j/kg.

 

SFC ANALYSIS (HPC 26 / 18Z) HAD A TROUGH OVER NW'RN HONDURAS ALONG 85W / 86W AND A HIGH (1024hPsa) OVER THE SE'RN USA. THE PATTERN SUPPORTS A LIGHT ENE'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA AT THE SFC - LOW LVLS BECMG N'LY AT MID LVLS. AT UPPER LVLS THE FLOW WAS WSW'LY - SW'LY AS A RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE CARIBBEAN DOMINATES. ANALYSIS SHOW THE UPPER LVL PATTERN TO BE NEUTRAL OVER OUR AREA. 

 

THE SFC TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AS IT DRIFTS NW'WARDS TOWARDS BZE - YUCATAN. THE SFC FLOW IS FCST TO VEER BECMG GENERALLY E'LY TONIGHT THRU THE END OF THE 3-DAY CYCLE BUT WITH A SHORT SPELL OF ESE'LY AROUND MID-DAY TOMORROW. AT LOW LVLS THE FLOW IS TO BE ESE'LY THROUGH-OUT THE CYCLE. THE GFS FCST WEAK MOISTURE MAX TO OCCUR OVER-NIGHT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT IN A DIURNALLY CONVERGENT PATTERN. AT UPPER LVLS THE RIDGE PATTERN IS TO MAINTAIN THE SW'LY FLOW THROUGH-OUT THE 3-DAY CYCLE AND MAINTAIN THE NEUTRAL - WEAKLY DIVERGENT PATTERN. THIS SUGGEST A SLIGHT INCREASE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY FROM LITTLE OR NONE TO THE CHANCE OF BECMG ISOLATED. 

 

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND SUNNY WITH A FEW CLOUDY SPELLS TOMORROW. SHOWERS, IF ANY, WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK:  FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS FOR GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS DEVELOPING.

MARINE: WINDS: EAST 5-15 KT; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP; WAVES: 1-3 FT.

FCSTR:  M. Gentle / S. Young