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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: SATURDAY 25TH OCTOBER 2014 (EVENING) 

SKIES WERE GENERALLY CLOUDY THIS EVENING. RADAR IMAGES SHOWED NO RAINFLL. WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS VERY MOIST CONDITIONS OVER BELIZE; DRY AIR IS SHOWN MOVING SOUTH OVER YUCATAN TOWARD BELIZE .

AT UPPER-LEVELS, A RIDGE OVER CENTRAL AMERICA , SUPPORTS A S'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND A W'LY FLOW AT 300MB. CONDITIONS ARE VERY DRY AND STABLE.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS ARE DRY AND THE FLOW IS N'LY. AT 850MB, A MOIST NORTHWESTERLY FLOW EXIST. AT THE SURFACE, THE 18Z ANALYSIS(NHC) SHOWED A 1008MB LOW JUST EAST OF HONDURAS/NICARAGUA. A STATIOARY FRONT EXTENDED FROM THE LOW NORTHEASTWARD  TO CUBA. A 1022MB HIGH OVER THE GULF AND BELIZE SUPPORTS RIDGING OVER THE AREA AND A MODERATE NW'LY FLOW. THE 00Z SOUNDING DATA SHOWS PWAT'S VALUE TO BE 28.86, KINX'S; 4.90 AND CAPES'S; 7.82

SAT NIGHT AND SUN:

THE RIDGE ALOFT  WILL SUPPORT  A W'LY FLOW AT 200MB AND  300MB. THE PATTERN WILL REMAIN STABLE.  AT 700MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN DRY AND THE FLOW WILL VEER TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE END OF THE CYCLE. AT 850MB, CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY MOIST, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS TO THE NORTH. AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT BELIZE, SUPPORTING A NW'LY FLOW. GFS AND NAM SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.

SUN NIGHT AND MON:

THE RIDGE ALOFT WILL SUPPORT A SW'LY  FLOW AT 200MB AND A NW'LY FLOW AT 300MB, WHILE THE PATTERN REMAINS STABLE. AT 700MB, CONDITIONS REMAIN DRY, WHILE THE FLOW VEERS FURTHER TO THE EAST.  AT 850MB, MOISTURE LEVELS REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH, WHILE THE  FLOW VEERS TO THE  NORTHEAST. AT THE SURFACE, THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE SUPPORTS A NE'LY FLOW. GFS SHOWS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS, WHILE  NAM INCREASES AMOUNTS TO .01IN/3HRS.

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW. SHOWERS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

OUTLOOK: A SIMILAR TREND WILL OCCUR ON SUN NIGHT AND MON.

MARINE:  WINDS: N/NW 10-20KT  SEAS: MODERATE.  WAVES:4-6 FT. ; SHOWERS IF ANY WILL BE ISOLATED.

FORECASTER: Wellington