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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: TUESDAY 16TH SEPTEMBER 2014 (EVENING)  

WEATHER CONDITIONS WERE MAINLY FAIR ACROSS THE COUNTRY THIS AFTERNOON. SAT IMAGERY SHOWED MAINLY FAIR WEATHER CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS WERE DETECTED ON RADAR. WATER VAPOUR LOOP SHOW THAT CONDITIONS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY DRIER AT THE MID-UPPER LEVS OVER BZE. HOWEVER, SOME RESIDUAL HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUE OVER THE SOUTH. LATEST PRECIP WATER ANALYSIS SHOW PWAT OF AROUND 50MM NEAR THE COUNTRY. 00-Z SOUNDING FROM THIS STATION MEASURED PWAT OF 51.54MM. THE STABILITY INDICES WERE MIXED (SHOW 2.10, LI -3.94, KI 33.90, CAPE 2022).

SFC ANALYSIS (NHC-18Z) SHOW A HIGH PRESSURE CENTER IN THE NE GULF OF MEXICO AND ANOTHER NE OF THE BAHAMAS. PRESSURE GRADIENTS WERE RELATIVELY SLACK OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN AND BZE SUPPORTING A LIGHT E-SE'LY FLOW. THE FLOW CONTINUED ESE'LY IN THE LOW LEVS (850-700MB). AT THE UPPER LEVS THE FLOW WAS NNE'LY AT 300MB AND NNW'LY AT 200MB. THE MAIN FEATURE WAS A RIDGE BUILDING NE'WARD INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND A NARROW TROF EXTENDING THROUGH E'RN CUBA TO NE HONDURAS. THE PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY CONVERGENT.

THE GFS (12 AND 18-Z) MODEL RUNS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO REMAIN GENERALLY E-SE'LY AND LIGHT FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS PRESSURE GRADIENTS REMAIN WEAK OVER THE AREA. A WEAK INVERTED TROF WHICH IS MAINLY A REFLECTION IN THE LOW LEVS OF THE MID-UPPER LEV TROF OVER THE NW/CNTRL CARIBBEAN WILL APPOACH THE COUNTRY FROM THE EAST. IT WILL WEAKEN BEFORE CROSSING THE COUNTRY LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY.  THE MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THIS FEATURE WILL NOT PRODUCE A SIGNIFICANT INCREASE IN MOISTURE OVER THE AREA AS MOISTURE IS FCST TO REMAIN LOW AND CONFINED IN THE LOW LEVS BELOW 700-850MB. AT THE UPPER LEVS THE TROF WILL GRADUALLY MOVE W'WARD TOWARDS BZE AND WILL PASS THROUGH S'RN BZE ON FRIDAY MORNING. THE MODEL DOES NOT SHOW ANY SIG INCREASE IN UPPER DIVERGENCE/VERTICAL WINDS OR MOISTURE  WITH THIS FEATURE.

THE GFS FCST MINIMAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 0.01-0.10 INS/6HRS FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS WITH ISOL MAX OF 0.25 INS/6HRS INLAND TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THE NAM GOES FOR ONLY SMALL AMOUNTS AS WELL.  

FORECAST: PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES TOMORROW. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED.

EXTENDED:  FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE: WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KT.; SEAS: CHOPPY; WAVES: 3-5 FT.;

FORECASTER: R. Gordon