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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  THURSDAY 21ST AUGUST 2014 (EVENING)

MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES CHARACTERIZED OUR WX TODAY.SHWRS REMAINED ISOLATED.

SATPIX IMAGERY (VIS) DEFINED MOSTLY  STRANDS OF CUMULI FROM CLOUDS OVER MAINLAND BZE.TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FAIRLY LARGE CLUSTERS WERE NOTED OVER SRN MEXICO.  BZE RADAR LOCATED SOME SHWRS NORTHEAST OF  AMBERGRIS CAY.WATER VAPOUR  IMAGERY MAINTAINED  MOIST AIR  COVERING  ALL OF CNTRL AMERICA. DEEP CONVECTION WAS NOTED ALONG THE PACIFIC COAST OF  SRN MEXICO. RELATIVELY DRY AIR  WAS OVER THE WRN CARIBBEAN AND PORTIONS OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA.

SFC ANALYSIS FOR 21-18Z  LOCATED A NARROW ATLANTIC HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDING ACROSS FLORIDA AND THE ERN GULFOMEX. THE  PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS MAINTAINING A LIGHT E'LY TO NE'LY  SFC FLOW OVER BZE AND COASTAL WATERS. THE   AREA OF LOW PRESSURE(1009hPa) APPROACHING THE LEEWARD IS. IS POORLY DEFINED. THE SYSTEM WAS HEADING WNW AT  AROUND 20MPH.

SKEW-T PROFILE FOR 22-00Z APPEARED MARGINALLY MOIST BETWEEN THE SFC AND 850hPa.AT MID AND UPPER LVLS THE SOUNDING APPEARED DRIER. MEAN WIND PROFILE BETWEEN THE SFC AND 500hPa WAS E'LY. PWAT WAS 45.5MM(RISING).

GFS MODEL FCST BASED ON 18Z DATA IS SUGGESTING A UNIFROM CHARACTER TO THE MOISTURE BETWEEN THE SFC AND MID LVLS THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING. MEAN LOW LVL FLOW WILL CONTINUE E'LY  TO NE'LY TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.MOST SHOWERS   WILL OCCUR MAINLY ALONG COASTAL BZE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING. ELSEWHERE, SHWRS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED.

AT MID LVLS (500-400hPa).WINDS WILL REMAIN E 'LY AT THIS LVL THROUGH FRIDAY.

 AT UPPER LVLS (300-200hPa) AN UPPER LVLS TROUGH/LOW EXTENDED FROM THE ATLANTIC OCEAN ACROSS TO CNTRL AND SWCARIBBEAN. THE LOW IS SUPPORTING N'LY WINDS OVER BZE AND COASTAL WATERS.PATTERN IS DIVERGENT. THROUGH TO FRIDAY EVENING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE CONVERGENT.

PRECIP MODEL FCST (GFS) IS  SUGGESTING  SMALL RAINFALL AMOUNTS(5-10MM) PERSISTING OVER SRN COASTAL BZE THROUGH  FRIDAY MORNING.RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN MINIMAL THROUGH SATURDAY. 

FORECAST:   CLOUDY AT TIMES TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AND SUNNY  WITH CLOUDY SPELLS TOMORROW.SHOWERS OR  THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE GENERALLY ISOLATED

EXTENDED:  (SATURDAY):PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES WITH GENERALLY ISOLATED SHOWERS.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST 5-15KTS.; SEAS:  CHOPPY.; WAVES:  2-4 FT.

FCSTR:    F.Tench Jr.