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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE: WEDNESDAY 23RD APRIL 2014 (EVENING)   

SAT IMAGERY (VIZ) AND RADAR OBS SHOWED THAT EXCEPT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER INLAND AREAS... THE WX CONTINUED MAINLY FAIR, WARM AND DRY ACROSS THE COUNTRY AND COASTAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WV IMAGERY LOOP SHOWS SOME MOISTURE AT MID-UPPER LVLS FR LOWING NE'WARDS ACROSS BZE AND N'RN CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN BECMG MORE MOIST ACROSS THE REM OF CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE S'RN AND CENTRAL CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC-PW IMAGE SHOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE RANGE 35-45mm NEAR THE COUNTRY WITH SLIGHTLY HIGHER VALUES TO THE NORTH.  

SFC ANALYSIS (TPC- 23 / 18Z) HAD A REMNANT SHEARLINE / TROUGHTHROUGH THE MONA PASSAGE AND INTO THE NW'RN CARIBBEAN. A WEAK HIGH (1016hPa) WAS OVER THE NORTH / CENTRAL GLFMEX AND SUPPORTS A LIGHT E'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA. THE RIDGE SUPPORTS AN ENE'LY FLOW AT 850hPa AND NW'LY AT 700hPa AS A RIDGE WAS CENTERED TO THE WEST. AT MID-UPPER LVLS (500-200hPa) THE FLOW BECMG WSW'LY AND WEAKLY DIVERGENT / DIFFLUENT WITH BROAD UPPER LVL TROUGHING TO THE WEST AND RIDGE DOMINATUING ACROSS CENTRAL AMERICA AND THE CARIBBEAN. 

THE GFS (12Z / 18Z) MODEL RUNS SUGGEST THE SFC / 850hPa HIGH IS TO GRADUALLY DRIFT E'WARDS ACROSS THE N'RN GLF AND HEAT LOWS / THERMAL TROUGHS TO DOMINATE MAINLAND MEXICO. THIS ACTION WILL SUPPORT WINDS VEERING TO BECMG ESE'LY OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH TO THE END OF THE 3-DAY CYCLE. THE GFS FCST ONLY WEAK LOW LVL CONVERGENCE WITH MOISTURE TO BE LIMITED AND CONFINED BELOW 800-850hPa / 5,000-7,000ft. MOSTLY SHALLOW FAIR WX CU IS EXPECTED IN THIS REGIME AND SHOWER ACTIVITY IS TO BE LIMITED OR NIL THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. AT THE MID-UPPER LVLS WEAK TROUGHING IS TO SWING EAST OF THE AREA TOMORROW AND THE SW'LY FLOW IS TO BECMG NW'LY TOMORROW THROUGH DAY THREE. AT 200hPa THE FLOW IS TO REVERT BACK TO SW'LY DURING FRI. AS A RIDGE BUILDS BACK ACROSS THE CARIBBEAN. THE PATTERN IS TO CONTINUE WEAKLY DIVERGENT THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT.... HOWEVER LACK OF LOW LVL MOISTURE / CONVERGENCE IS TO OFFSET THIS DYNAMIC. THE PATTERN IS TO BECMG EVEN MORE STABLE LATER TOMORROW THROUGH FRI. NIGHT. ADVECTION OF HIGH LVL MOISTURE FROM CONVECTIVE DEBRIS IS TO SUPPORT SOME HIGH LVL CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM NEIGHBORING COUNTRIES OF CENTRAL AMERICA. 

THE MODELS (GFS / NAM / NVG AND UKMET) GENERALLY AGREE AND FCST LITTLE TO NO RAINFALL DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AND RR AMTS OF .10ins/6hrs AFTER.

FORECAST:   MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNNY TOMORROW. SHOWERS, IF ANY, WILL BE ISOLATED.

EXTENDED: FOR THURS. NIGHT AND FRI. IS FOR CONTINUING MAINLY FAIR WEATHER WITH LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL..

MARINE:  WINDS: E-SE 5-15 KTS.; SEAS: LIGHT CHOP - CHOPPY.; WAVES: 2-4 FT.

FORECASTER:   M.  GENTLE.