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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

FORECAST DISCUSSION

  

DATE: FRIDAY 24TH JUNE 2016 (AFTERNOON)

A FEW SHOWERS AFFECTED THE SOUTH THIS MORNING, THEN SHOWERS BECAME ISOLATED AFTER MID-MORNING. THE AIRFLOW IS BECOMING LESS MOIST AND LESS UNSTABLE. THE LATEST TPW IMAGE WAS SHOWING PWAT AROUND 50MM IN A SLOT EAST OF BELIZE, WHICH WAS LESS THAN THE SOUNDING SHOWED THIS MORNING. THE SURFACE CHART SHOWED A TROF OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND THE ATLANTIC RIDGE EXTENDING TO THE N'RN GULF OF MEXICO. A MODERATE EASTERLY AIRFLOW PREVAILED OVER THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND BELIZE. AN EAST-SOUTHEAST FLOW PREVAILED OVER OUR AREA AT THE LOW LEVELS; WHILE AT HIGH LEVELS A HIGH OVER W'RN YUCATAN WAS SUPPORTING A NORTH-NORTHEAST FLOW ALOFT. THE UPPER PATTERN WAS NEUTRAL OVER OUR AREA. 

THE GFS FORECASTS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH TO PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY AND MAINTAIN THE MODERATE EASTERLY SURFACE FLOW. THE MOISTURE IS TO DECREASE A LITTLE MORE THIS AFTERNOON, THEN REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH SUNDAY. AT NIGHT HOWEVER, THE MOISTURE IS TO INCREASE TEMPORARILY OVER THE SOUTH AND SUPORT A FEW SHOWERS. THE HIGH LEVEL PATTERN IS TO BECOME WEAKLY CONVERTENT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING, THEN BECOME NEUTRAL AGAIN. THE UPPER SYSTEMS ARE MOVING WEST, AND AN INVERTED TROF IS TO CROSS OUR AREA ON SUNDAY. 

THE NAM AND NVG GENERALLY AGREE WITH THE GFS THROUGH SUNDAY. THE MODELS GO FOR LITTLE RAINFALL(0.01-0.10 INS/6HRS) THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY, EXCEPT FOR A SLIGHT OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW NIGHT. 

FORECAST:  SUNNY WITH CLOUDY SPELLS DURING THE DAYTIME AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TONIGHT. SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ISOLATED, EXCEPT FOR A FEW MORE OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING.

OUTLOOK:  SIMILAR WEATHER CONDITIONS.

MARINE:  WINDS: EAST 10-20KTS; SEAS: CHOPPY-MODERATE; WAVES: 3-5 FT. 

FCSTR: RUDON