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Climate Section

 

Belize Drought Outlook

 

 

Drought Outlook ( 6 Month's SPI outlook November 2015 to  April 2016)

December Update (Using the data up to December 2015)

 Drought Update: No Drought Concern for the Entire Country up to April 2016.


6 month drought outlook

 

 

Long Term Drought Outlook  

1.This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until December 2015, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-1.3 (very dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN).

 

 

A Drought Watch is issued for Central Coast and Southwest Belize up to the end of JULY 2016 .

 
 

 12 month drought outlook

 

 

Current Drought Situation:

Because of the Above Normal rainfall that occurred in October, November and December of 2015(Graph Below) the drought situation have Easy off over the Entire Country thru to April of 2016. In long term there is still concern for drought in southwest and central coast of the country during the  End of July 2016.  

 alt

 

 

 

Forecast Drought Condition for Belize is done by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

 

The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), developed by T.B. Mckee, N.J. Doesken and J. Kleist (McKee et al. 1993) of Colorado State University is an index that, if used carefully, can provide early warning of an extended drought period and aid in assessing drought severity. It can also provide similar information at the other end of the spectrum- extremely high precipitation. SPI is basically a representation of rainfall in units of standard deviation. Positive values indicate greater than median rainfall; negative values indicate less than median rainfall. Belize is now using this tool for early drought warning.

 

Table SPI classification (CIMH)

 

SPI Value

Category

Spi Value

Impact

-0.50 to -0.01

Normal

0.50 to 0.01

Normal

-0.80 to -0.51

Abnormally dry

0.80 to 0.51

Abnormally wet

-1.30 to -0.81

Moderately dry

1.30 to 0.81

Moderately wet

-1.60 to -1.31

Severely dry

1.60 to 1.31

very wet

-2.00 to -1.61

Extremely dry

2.00 to 1.61

Extremely wet

= -2.01

Exceptionally dry

= -2.01

Exceptionally wet

 

 

 

A three-month SPI analysis reflects short to medium term moisture and can give an indication of available moisture conditions at the beginning of the growing season. A six-month SPI analysis reflects medium term trends in rainfall and is effective in showing rainfall distribution over distinct seasons as well as being associated with anomalous stream flows and reservoir levels, which takes longer to manifest itself than does agricultural drought. A twelve-month SPI can indicate the potential periods of shortfall in groundwater amounts. 

 

 

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service of Belize makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this statement. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

 

Next Drought Statement will be issued by 1st week of March 2016

 

If you have quires or comments please contact Climate Section at the National Meteorological service at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .