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Climate Section

 

Belize Drought Outlook

 

 

Drought Outlook ( 6 Month's SPI outlook September 2016 to  February 2017)

December Update (Using data up to November 2016)

 Drought Update: There is a drought warning for west central areas (most of the Cayo District). Most other areas of the country are under a drought watch except for southern coastal areas where there is no drought concern.

6 MONTH DROUGHT OUTLOOK

 Long Term Drought Outlook  

This 12-month SPI-based drought outlook uses observations until July 2016, with potential impacts on large surface water reserves and groundwater. In general, impacts are expected if the 12-month SPI is ≤-1.3 (very dry or worse – ref.: CDPMN).

  Drought Outlook ( 12 Month's SPI outlook June 2016 to  May 2017)

 

December Update (Using the data up to November 2016)

 

 Drought Update: There is a Drought Watch for the northwest portions of the country (NW Orange Walk district) and also along southern Coastal Toledo District. There is no drought concern for the remainder of the country. 

 12 MONTH DROUGHT OUTLOOK

 

 

 

Forecast Drought Condition for Belize is done by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI)

 

The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), developed by T.B. Mckee, N.J. Doesken and J. Kleist (McKee et al. 1993) of Colorado State University is an index that, if used carefully, can provide early warning of an extended drought period and aid in assessing drought severity. It can also provide similar information at the other end of the spectrum- extremely high precipitation. SPI is basically a representation of rainfall in units of standard deviation. Positive values indicate greater than median rainfall; negative values indicate less than median rainfall. Belize is now using this tool for early drought warning.

 

Table SPI classification (CIMH)

 

SPI Value

Category

Spi Value

Impact

-0.50 to -0.01

Normal

0.50 to 0.01

Normal

-0.80 to -0.51

Abnormally dry

0.80 to 0.51

Abnormally wet

-1.30 to -0.81

Moderately dry

1.30 to 0.81

Moderately wet

-1.60 to -1.31

Severely dry

1.60 to 1.31

very wet

-2.00 to -1.61

Extremely dry

2.00 to 1.61

Extremely wet

= -2.01

Exceptionally dry

= -2.01

Exceptionally wet

 

 

 

A three-month SPI analysis reflects short to medium term moisture and can give an indication of available moisture conditions at the beginning of the growing season. A six-month SPI analysis reflects medium term trends in rainfall and is effective in showing rainfall distribution over distinct seasons as well as being associated with anomalous stream flows and reservoir levels, which takes longer to manifest itself than does agricultural drought. A twelve-month SPI can indicate the potential periods of shortfall in groundwater amounts. 

 

 

Disclaimer

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service of Belize makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this statement. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

 

Next Drought Statement will be issued by 1st week of  January 2017

 

If you have quires or comments please email Climate Section at the National Meteorological service at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .