Drought and Precipitation Statement
For Stations Across
Belize – June 2014
Rainfall assessment of the country monthly average rainfall for June 2014 showed that all stations received rainfall below their climatological normal(1981-2010) as indicated in the Graph below.
June 2014 rainfall against (1981-2010)
The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), developed by T.B. Mckee, N.J. Doesken and J. Kleist (McKee et al. 1993) of Colorado State University is an index that, if used carefully, can provide early warning of an extended drought period and aid in assessing drought severity. It can also provide similar information at the other end of the spectrum- extremely high precipitation. SPI is basically a representation of rainfall in units of standard deviation. Positive values indicate greater than median rainfall; negative values indicate less than median rainfall. Belize is now using this tool for early drought warning.
Table SPI classification (CIMH)
The rainfall forecast for July-August-September 2014 is going for Below Normal Rainfall for Belize and her Coastal waters. Below is the result from the SPI calculations for six (6) stations across Belize for August -September-October 2014.
A three-month SPI analysis reflects short to medium term moisture and can give an indication of available moisture conditions at the beginning of the growing season. A six-month SPI analysis reflects medium term trends in rainfall and is effective in showing rainfall distribution over distinct seasons as well as being associated with anomalous stream flows and reservoir levels, which takes longer to manifest itself than does agricultural drought.
The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service of Belize makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this statement. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
Next Drought Statement will be issued in the first week of August 2014.