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NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE


FORECAST DISCUSSION

DATE:  WEDNESDAY 16TH MAY 2012 (EVENING)

SATELLITE AND RADAR IMAGERY SHOWED THAT SHOWERS AND TSTORMS ACTIVITY DECREASED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE AFTERNOON WITH MOSTLY LIGHT-MOD RAIN LINGERING MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTRY. DEBRIS CLOUDS CONTINUED TO ENGULF THE COUNTRY. LATEST WATER VAPOUR LOOP CONTINUE TO SHOW ABUNDANT AMOUNTS OF MID-UPPER LEV MOISTURE ADVECTING FROM THE E'RN PACIFIC TO OVER CNTRAL AMERICA, BZE AND THE W'RN CARIBBEAN. LATEST MIMIC-TPW IMAGERY SHOW THAT HIGH AMOUNTS OF PRECIP WATER REMAINS NEAR BZE AND OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS (PW GREATER THAN 60mm).

SFC ANALYSIS (TPW-18Z) SHOWED A SFC TROF EXTENDING DOWN FROM THE CNTRL YUCATAN TO W'RN GUATEMALA.  ANOTHER SFC TROF (REMNANT OF PREVIOUS FRONTAL BOUNDARY) EXTENDED DOWN THE E'RN USA TO THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. A 1032mb HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE W/CNTRL ATLC EXTENDED A RIDGE TO THE W'RN ATLC (BAHAMAS). A LIGHT E-NE'LY AIRFLOW PREVAILED ACROSS BZE. EXTENSIVE MOISTURE EXTENDED FROM SFC TO UPPER-LEVELS AND STRONG CONVERGENCE WAS ANALYZED AT THE SFC DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SFC TROF IN OUR AREA. AT THE UPPER LEVS, AN ANTICYCLONE NEAR EL SALVADOR WAS PRODUCING A VERY DIFFLUENT SW'LY FLOW OVER OUR AREA PRODUCING AMPLE AMOUNT OF VENTILATION FOR TS ACTIVITY OVER THE REGION.

THE GFS (12 AND 18Z) MODEL RUNS FCST THE SFC FLOW TO REMAIN E-NE'LY TONIGHT AND BECOME N-NE'LY TOMORROW THEN N-NW'LY TOMORROW NIGHT AS A SFC TROF AMPLIFIES OVER THE GULF OF HONDURAS. MOISTURE AND SFC CONVERGENCE WILL REMAIN HIGH AND PEAK TOMORORROW NIGHT. THE UPPER LEV RIDGE WILL REMAIN PRETTY MUCH IN PLACE AND CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A STRONGLY DIVERGENT PATTERN AT UPPER LEVELS WHICH TOO WILL PEAK TOMORROW EVENING-NIGHT.  STRONG VERTICAL MOITION ARE FCST FOR TONIGHT AND THEN AGAIN TOMORROW NIGHT. THIS WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPORT MOD-DEEP CONVECTION AND SHOWERY WEATHER OVER THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND NAM CONTINUE TO FCST HIGH AMOUNTS OF RAINFALL MAINLY OVER THE COAST (0.5-1.5 ins/6hrs) FOR THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS.

FORECAST:  CLOUDY TO OVERCAST WITH SOME OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS, THUNDERSTORMS OR PERIODS OF RAIN MAINLY ALONG THE COAST AND OVER THE SOUTH TONIGHT THEN OVER MOST AREAS TOMORROW.

OUTLOOK:  FOR THURSDAY NIGH AND FRIDAY IS FOR CONTINUING CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES WITH SOME OUTBREAKS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

MARINE:  WINDS: E-NE 5-15 KTS BECMG GUSTY NEAR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.; SEAS: CHOPPY - MODERATE BUT LOCALLY ROUGH NEAR TSTORMS.; WAVES: 2-5 FT BUT UP TO 7 FT NEAR TSTORMS.; *SMALL CRAFT CAUTION*.

FORECASTER:  R. Gordon