DROUGHT FORECAST

NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE

 Climat Section

Catherine Cumberbatch

Drought assessment for the period March/April 2012 shows that the country did not experence any sort of Drought.  The precipitation outlook generated at the Central American Precipitaion Forum that was helded in Nicaragua Managua  for the period May-June-July  2012 shows that Belize has a higher chance of getting rainfall in the normal climatological  range.

 Rainfall data gathered from the National Meteorological Net Work for the month of April shows that  twelve stations got rainfall above their normal. 

The precipitation outlook is issued in the form of a map of tercile probabilities showing regions having homogeneous forecast probabilities for below, near and above normal precipitation. The terciles separate the possible outcomes into three categories (terciles) based on the historical precipitation record. The probabilities add up to 100.

. Above Normal-Wettest Third of the Record

. Near Normal- Middle third of the Record

. Below Normal- Driest Third of the Record

The result of the Forecast outlook  May-June-July  for Belize shows:

35% likelihood of above normal rainfall

40% likelihood of normal rainfall

25% likelihood of below Normal rainfall

With Dought Index  for March/April 2012  showing  that the country did not experiencing any sort of Drought,  also global models like GFS, forecasting a  high volume of soil moisture over Belize and ground temperature(0 to 10cm)  projected to  range between  25 to 30 degrees centigrade. The condition for Meteorological or Agrometeorological Drought remains  low for most of the country for the month of May 

Thus the forecast for drought in the month of May is for Normal to No Drought over most of the country. 

Disclaimer : The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that the National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS)  makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material