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DROUGHT FORECAST NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF BELIZE
Climat Section Catherine Cumberbatch
Drought assessment for the period March/April 2012 shows that the country did not experence any sort of Drought. The precipitation outlook generated at the Central American Precipitaion Forum that was helded in Nicaragua Managua for the period May-June-July 2012 shows that Belize has a higher chance of getting rainfall in the normal climatological range. Rainfall data gathered from the National Meteorological Net Work for the month of April shows that twelve stations got rainfall above their normal. The precipitation outlook is issued in the form of a map of tercile probabilities showing regions having homogeneous forecast probabilities for below, near and above normal precipitation. The terciles separate the possible outcomes into three categories (terciles) based on the historical precipitation record. The probabilities add up to 100.
. Above Normal-Wettest Third of the Record . Near Normal- Middle third of the Record . Below Normal- Driest Third of the Record
The result of the Forecast outlook May-June-July for Belize shows: 35% likelihood of above normal rainfall 40% likelihood of normal rainfall 25% likelihood of below Normal rainfall
With Dought Index for March/April 2012 showing that the country did not experiencing any sort of Drought, also global models like GFS, forecasting a high volume of soil moisture over Belize and ground temperature(0 to 10cm) projected to range between 25 to 30 degrees centigrade. The condition for Meteorological or Agrometeorological Drought remains low for most of the country for the month of May Thus the forecast for drought in the month of May is for Normal to No Drought over most of the country. Disclaimer : The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that the National Meteorological Service of Belize (NMS) makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material
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Drought Monitoring




