Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
March 2018    |     Print Report

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to  produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the  historical data observed at these stations,  global and regional climate models,  statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs.

Based on these inputs, the rainfall forecast for the country during the period March - April -May 2019 (MAM 2019) is for near normal rainfall in the south and below normal rainfall across the remainder of the country. Maximum/daytime and minimum/nighttime temperatures are expected to be warmer than normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period March-April-May 2019 are as follows:

 

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 100-175 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 100-200 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 150-250 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 200-400 Normal - Below Normal

Rainfall across the country during the period June-July-August 2019 (JJA 2019) is forecasted to range from near normal amounts over southern areas to below normal amounts in the north. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period while minimum/nighttime temperatures are expected be near normal.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period June-July-August 2019 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 300-400 Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 400-600 Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 400-500 Below Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 700-1800 Normal - Below Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
Mar-Apr-May (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Jun-Jul-Aug (2019) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season?

  1. The SST anomalies have stabilized at around 0.5°C in the Niño3.4 region of the Pacific indicating borderline El Niño conditions. Meanwhile Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) and Caribbean Sea SSTs are hovering near average. The sub-tropical areas of the North Atlantic and the far Western Caribbean remain warmer than average with anomalies of around 1°C.
  2. A majority of models suggest that the current weak El Nino will persist at least through the March to May season with odds of neutral conditions increasing toward the June - August season.
  3. An El Niño event would tend to favour drier and warmer conditions across most of the region with a potential late start to the wet season.
  4. Note, however, that an El Niño persisting beyond April is quite rare which brings some additional uncertainty into the current forecast. Moreover, there is always some level of uncertainty in predicting the behaviour of the major climate drivers. Users of this information are therefore advised to continue monitoring the monthly updates.

Disclaimer

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.