Precipitation Outlook - National Meteorological Service of Belize
Tropical Weather Outlook
  • Tropical cyclone formation is not expected in the North Atlantic, the Caribbean Sea or the Gulf of Mexico within the next 48 hours.

Hurricane Tips
  •  Fill sinks, bathtub and large containers with water as an extra supply for washing and flushing.
  •  During the hurricane season, fisher folks are strongly advised to stay informed via radio, listen to the weather bulletin before venturing out to sea. Move your boat to safe harbor early.
  •  Prepare your car in case of evacuation. Fill your tank and check your tires.
  •  Upon alert, farmers should harvest crops which can be stored, consumed and sold.

Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period June - July-August 2017 (JJA 2017) is for near normal to below normal rainfall over northern areas and near normal to above normal rainfall over southern portions of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period June-July-August 2017 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 440-550 Slightly Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 500-800 Near Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 550-650 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 1000-2300 Slightly Above Normal

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period September - October - November 2017 (SON 2017) is for Above Normal rainfall over most areas of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period September - October - November 2017 are as follows:

REGIONRAINFALL AMOUNT (mm)CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 550-650 Above Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 700-900 Above Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 900-1000 Above Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 1200-1700 Above Normal

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range.

PeriodRainfall MapsPercent Maps (Below/Above)Maximum Temperature MapsMinimum Temperature Maps
June-July-Aug (2017) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon
Sep-Oct-Nov (2017) popup icon popup icon popup icon popup icon

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests a shift from neutral conditons to a slight warming in the  equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4) with SST increasing to around 0.3-0.5 degrees celcius above average. Most global models suggests either neutral to slightly warm or a weak to moderate EL Nino, with a 45% chance of El Nino by JJJA or SON 2017. However, their is great uncertainty in this forecast and moreover, ENSO forecast are typically unpredictable during the spring-time. Additionally, the effects of a weak El Nino may be offset by moderate warm temperatures in the Atlantic Region. Users of this information are therefore ask to continue to monitor the monthly updates.

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.