Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly rainfall and temperature forecasts. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs. Monthly forecast are considered sub-seasonal forecasts and the evolution of intra-seasonal oscillations play a significant role in these forecasts. One example of a sub-seasonal oscillation which carries significant weight in producing the monthly forecast is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Based on the above inputs, rainfall totals in March 2019 are expected to be below normal over the Stann Creek and most of the Cayo District. Rainfall amounts are expected to be near normal to slightly above normal over southern Toledo and northern Belize and Orange Walk districts. Meanwhile up north in the Corozal District, rainfall totals are expected to be slightly below normal. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be normal to slightly warmer than normal and minimum/nighttime temperatures are expected to be above normal during the month.
Rainfall amounts that are expected across key districts stations in March 2019 are as follows:
|Region||Station||Rainfall Amount (mm)||Category|
|North||Tower Hill||30-40||Normal-Slightly Above|
|North||Rio Bravo||30-40||Normal-Slightly Above|
|Central Inland Areas||Central Farm||30-40||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Belmopan||35-45||Below Normal|
|Central Coastal Areas||Airport||45-55||Normal-Slightly Above|
|Mountainous Areas||Baldy Beacon||50-70||Normal-Slightly Below|
|South||Punta Gorda||70-90||Normal-Slightly Above|
The maps below show approximate rainfall totals that can be expected. The expected maximum and minimum temperatures are also shown. Users are advised that the amounts shown are only an approximation and are therefore cautioned not to focus on the exact value on the maps but instead to expect that the rainfall and temperature should be somewhere in that general range.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald
Last Updated: Tue, Mar 05, 2019 | 10:17 AM