Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly and seasonal rainfall and temperature forecast. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs. To produce monthly forecast, which are considered subseasonal forecasts, the forecast evolution of intra-seasonal oscillations such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation are paid special attention to.
Based on these inputs, the Rainfall Forecast for the country for the month of July 2018 is for normal to slightly above normal rainfall over southern areas and below normal rainfall for the rest of the country. Rainfall may be as low as 20-30% below normal in the north. Maximum temperatures are expected to be slightly above normal while minimum temperatures are expected to be slightly below normal as compared to recent years.
Rainfall amounts that are expected across key districts stations in July 2018 are as follows:
|Region||Station||Rainfall Amount (mm)||Category|
|North||Tower Hill||120-140||Below Normal|
|North||Rio Bravo||115-135||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Central Farm||120-140||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Belmopan||260-300||Below Normal|
|Central Coastal Areas||Airport||160-180||Below Normal|
|Mountainous Areas||Baldy Beacon||240-280||Below Normal|
|South||Punta Gorda||770-870||Near Normal|
The maps below show approximate rainfall totals that can be expected. The expected maximum and minimum temperatures are also shown. Users are advised that the amounts shown are only an approximation and are therefore cautioned not to focus on the exact value on the maps but instead to expect that the rainfall and temperature should be somewhere in that general range.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald
Last Updated: Tue, Jul 17, 2018 | 10:19 AM