WEATHER ANALYSIS and FORECASTING

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Belize City, BELIZE                                                                           Web //www.hydromet.gov.bz

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End of the 2011 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season

By

Catherine Cumberbatch

November 30^th 2011 is the last day of an active Atlantic Basin Hurricane season. The season prediction was for 12 to 18 storms with 6 to 10 become hurricanes. The Climatology is for 9 to 10 name storms with 5 to 6 becoming hurricanes .This year saw the development of 19 name storms and 7 hurricanes. Three of these became major hurricanes achieving category three strength or higher, (Irene 3, Katia and Ophelia 4). The main factor contributing to this year activity was above average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic and La Niña condition which is cool sea surface temperatures in the Pacific. This cooling tends to enhance Atlantic basin activity.

The Western Caribbean saw the development of two systems that cause the country to go into emergency. These systems were Tropical Storm Harvey and Hurricane Rina. In the middle of August a westward moving tropical wave entered the Caribbean Sea. On the August 18 the wave eventually gained enough organization to be classified as Tropical Depression Eight. It was upgraded to Tropical Storm Harvey on August 19. By late August 19 the storm was intensifying and it was announced that it could become a hurricane just before landfall on southern Belize. However, by Saturday afternoon, August 20, Harvey made landfall on southern Belize, never reaching hurricane strength.   Minimal damage was estimated with no death.

In the middle of October, the tail end of an early cold front moved into the western Caribbean. This cold front along with an east-southeasterly trade wind produced a broad area of cyclonic circulation over the southwestern Caribbean. On the 23^rd October the area of low pressure became Tropical Depression 18. Hours later the depression became tropical storm Rina. The storm continued to intensify and on the 24^th it became Hurricane Rina. Rina now a category 2 hurricane continued on a west northwest track and its closes point to the country was at Half Moon and San Pedro Ambergris Caye on the October26. Damage if any was minimal.

The 2011 Hurricane season is behind us lets us take time out to look at the strengths and weakness of our hurricane emergency and where improvement can be made, so that we can be even better prepared to meet the challenges for the 2012 season.

National Meteorological & Hydrological service will continue to do its utmost best to disseminate information in a timely and accurate manner on all weather systems that pose a direct or indirect threat to the Nation, in order to contribute to the safety and wellbeing of the people of Belize and sustainable development of the nation.