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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

(March - April - May 2017) and (June - July - August 2017)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast. This is done by using available historical data, along with Global Models, Observations, Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Inputs.

 

Based on on all these inputs the rainfall forecast for Belize for the period March - April - May 2017 (MAM 2017) is for above normal rainfall over western and northwestern areas and for Near Normal rainfall over other areas of the country. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period  March-April-May 2017 are as follows:

 

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts) 150-250 Normal-Above Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District) 200-250

Above Normal

Central Costal Areas (Belize District) 200-300 Near Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 300-400 Near Normal

 

The rainfall forecast for Belize for the period June - July - August 2017 (JJA 2017)  is for Below Normal rainfall  over northern and western areas and above normal rainfall over the southern and coastal areas. Temperatures are expected to be above normal during this period.

 

Approximate Rainfall amounts that are expected over different regions of the country during the period June - July -August 2017 are as follows:

 

REGION RAINFALL AMOUNT (mm) CATEGORY
North (Orange Walk and Corozal Districts)  450-550  Below Normal
Central Inland Areas (Cayo District excluding Belmopan)  400-500  Below Normal
Central Costal Areas (Belize District)  700-800  Above Normal
Southern Areas (Stann Creek and Toledo Districts) 1000-2500  Above Normal

 

Click on a link in the following table to view maps displaying some approximate rainfall and temperature values that can be expected across some key district stations during the period. Note that values are not expected to be exactly as depicted on the maps but they should be somewhere in that general range. 

 

Period Rainfall Maps Percent Maps (Below/Above) Maximum Temperature Maps Minimum Temperature Maps
Mar-Apr-May (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map
June-July-Aug (2017) Rainfall_Map Above_Below_Map Max_Temp_Map Min_Temp_Map

 

What influences the next season? Recent obervations suggests that sea surface temperatures in the  equatorial eastern Pacific are about 0.5 degrees celcius below normal. This indicates borderline La Niña conditions. Model guidance suggest that conditions will return to ENSO Neutral conditions through the FMA 2017 season (55-75% Confidence).

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.