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Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(August-September-October 2015)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period August-September-October 2015  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979-June 2015, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2015, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period  August -September-October2015 is going for Below Normal rainfall for the Entire Country, Except the South which is going for Normal Rainfall.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period August-September-October 2015 aso percent above below normal

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during ASO 2015 are as follows.

aso rainfall forecast1

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the ASO season are likely to range from 200mm to 800mm  over northern (Corozal &Orange Walk), inland(Cayo & Belmopan) and central coastal areas Belize District).

 

Accumulated rainfall totals over southern Belize (Stann Creek and Toledo) are likely to be between 900 mm and 1800 mm.

 

 

What influences the next season?

 

El Niño Southern Oscillation: A moderate El Niño exists ; sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) 1-1.5°C above average and rising in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4).

Model Guidance: More than 95% of the models indicate continued El Niño conditions for August-September-October and  November-December2015-January 2016, with many suggesting further warming into a strong El Niño event by ASO and NDJ.

Forecast: 95% confidence in El Niño conditions during ASO and NDJ.

Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: a large shift to higher probabilities for below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the region, as El Niño usually weakens the development of rain-, thunder- and tropical storms. However, a shift towards above-normal rainfall is noted for the NW of the Caribbean during NDJ due to reduced winds in the upper atmosphere, which allows for stronger showers.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.