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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

(  April-May-June 2016)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period April-May-June 2016  This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to March 2016, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the forecast for Belize for period April-May-June 2016  is going for  Normal rainfall  and Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period April -May-June 2016

amj 2016 rainfall fcstamj 2016 rainfall percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during April-May-June 2016 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the AMJ 2016 season are likely to range from 150mm to 400mm  over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk), (Cayo  Central Farm and Belmopan) and also over Central Coastal Belize (Airport)
Accumulated rainfall totals for the AMJ 2016 season are likely to range from 700mm to 800mm  Inland areasin Mountains (Baldy Beacon) and also South (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda and Punta Gorda).
Whiles Savannah Forest station (South) is expected to accumulate 400-500mm.

 

 
Temperature Forecast for the period April -May-June 2016 are indicated on the Maps Below.
mean temp fcst amj 2016
 
max temp fcst amj 2016min temp fcst amj 2016

 

 

What influences the next season?

El Niño Southern Oscillation: A strong El Niño have reached peak strength at the end of 2015 ; sea-surface temperatures of 2.5-3.0°C above average  in the equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model forecast and guidance indeicate that the  El Niño of 2015 will  continue to weaken duirng the AMJ period and 75-80% confidence will  likely to return to neutral condition  in May-June-July of 2016 and 60-65% confidence. 

The expected impact  on the AMJ period is  Normal rainfall and higher temperatures for the country of Belize

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.