Precipitation Outlook PDF Print E-mail

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Seasonal Precipitation Outlook

(February-March-April 2015)

&

(December2014 - January-February-March 2015)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Ten agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  forecast for the period February-March-April 2015  and December2014-January thru March2015 for Belize. This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979-December 2014, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset 1979 to 2014, along with the other inputs, the rainfall forecast  for  (Febraury-March-April 2015) prepared by CariCOF is going for equal chance of Above Normal , Normal and Below Normalrainfall for the entire country and the rainfall forecast for December 2014- January-February-March2015  that was prepared at Central American Forum is going for  Below Normal  rainfall for the  entire country.

 

Rainfall Probabilistically of CariCOF

25% chance of above normal rainfall

30% chance of Normal rainfall

45% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

Rainfall Probabilistically of Central American Forum

 20% chance of above normal rainfall

35% chance of Normal rainfall

45% chance of Below Normal rainfall

 

 Precipitation Outlook for February-March-April 2015 prepared by the Caribbean Regional Climate Outlook (CariCOF)

fma2015

 

Precipitation Outlook for December2014-January-February-March2015 prepared at the Central American Forum.

dec14jan-mar15

 

ENSO Conditions:

 

What influences the next season?

ENSO neutral; sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) nearly 0.9°C above average in equatorial eastern Pacific (NINO3.4). Model guidance: a majority indicate continued 0.5-1.0°C above average SSTs for FMA, which is called a weak El Niño event. Forecast: 50-60% confidence in El Niño conditions during FMA and 40-50% confidence in MJJ. Expected impacts on rainfall and temperatures: a small shift to higher probabilities for below-normal rainfall and higher temperatures south of 20°N for FMA. In MJJ period.

 

Disclaimer

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.