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Seasonal Precipitation & Temperature Outlook

( July-August-September 2016)  &

(October-November-November 2016)

PREPARED BY

(CLIMATE SECTION)

 

Several  agro-meteorological stations across the country were used to make the seasonal precipitation  and temperature forecast for the period July-August-September 2016  and October-November-December 2016 This was done by using the  data set for the period 1979 to May 2016, along with Global Models, Observations. Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective Input.

 

The forecast is issued in the form of terciles probabilities of above normal, normal and below normal. The probabilities add up to 100%.

 

Above Normal - (33% of highest values in the dataset)

Near Normal   - (33% of middle values in the dataset)

Below Normal - (33% of lowest values in the dataset)

 

Thus based on the dataset for 1979 to May 2016, using the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT), along with Gobal Models as gusidance and Subjective input the rainfall forecast for Belize for period July-August-September 2016  is going for  Above Normal rainfall for the Entire South, Normal rainfall for the Central and Northern Coast  and Below Normal rainfall for West Central Areas. 

Above Normal Temperatures for Belize and Her coastal waters during the JAS and OND period.

  

Precipitation Outlook for the period July-August-September 2016

jas 2016 rainfall fcstjas 2016 rainfall percent

   

Rainfall amounts that are expected across districts stations during July -August-September 2016 are as follows.

 

 

Accumulated rainfall totals for the JAS 2016 season are likely to range from 300mm to 600mm  over northern areas (Corozal &Orange Walk). Over west central  (Cayo:  Central Farm  Belmopan and Spanish Lookout) range from 400 to 600mm Whiles in Baldy Beacon area projecting 1000 - 1600mm of rainfall.
Accumulated rainfall totals for the JAS 2016 season are likely to range from 800mm to 1000mm  along central coast ( Belize District) . The South accumulated total are likely to be 2000-2400mm i.e (Pomona, Middlesex, Melinda Savannah and Punta Gorda).
 
The rainfall forecast for Belize for period  October-November-December  2016  is going for Above Normal rainfall  for the Entire Country Except.
 
altalt
 
Temperature Forecast for the period July-August-September 2016  is going for Above Normal as  indicated on the Maps Below.
max temp fcst jas 2016min temp fcst jas 2016
 
Temperature Forecast for the period October-November-September 2016  is going for Above Normal as  indicated on the Maps Below.
 maxmin

What influences the next season? 

El Niño Southern Oscillation:   Weak El Niño continues to  weaken and  Models indicate that a transition to La Niña by September with (58-65%) confidence, with a persistent La Nina conditions lasting throughout OND.

The expected impact on the rainfall  for Belize for period JAS period is  for POSSIBLE FLOOD in the south.

 

The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorology Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.