Drought Monitoring PDF Print E-mail

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Climat Section

 

Drought and Precipitation Statement

 

 

Rainfall assessment of the country monthly average rainfall for January-February-March 2015 showed that most stations received rainfall Above  their climatological normal(1981-2010) as indicated in the Table and Graph below.

 

 jfm 2015

 

 January-February-March 2015 rainfall against (1981-2010)

 

Station

JFM

Normal(1981-2010)

Result

Libertad

160.4

102.2-148.3

AN

Tower Hill

150.2

113.7-158.2

N

Philip Goldson Airport
252.2 221.7-308.8 N

Belmopan

319.6

181.5-268.9

AN
Central Farm 244.7 192.9-232.2 AN

Spanish Lookout

218.4 152.2-204.8 AN
Middlesex

331.8

201.3-319.2 AN

Pomona

457.1

250.6-349.8

AN
Savannah 340.4 179.5-312.1 AN

PuntaGorda

490.3 271.6-375.1 AN

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Drought Outlook for the End of February
CariCOF's Drought Alert Map 

spi jan jun 2015

 

drought2015

 

Forecast Drought Condition for Belize for the period May-June-July 2015 using Standaerdized Precipitation Index (SPI)

The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), developed by T.B. Mckee, N.J. Doesken and J. Kleist (McKee et al. 1993) of Colorado State University is an index that, if used carefully, can provide early warning of an extended drought period and aid in assessing drought severity. It can also provide similar information at the other end of the spectrum- extremely high precipitation. SPI is basically a representation of rainfall in units of standard deviation. Positive values indicate greater than median rainfall; negative values indicate less than median rainfall. Belize is now using this tool for early drought warning.

 

Table SPI classification (CIMH)

 

SPI Value

Category

Spi Value

Impact

-0.50 to -0.01

Normal

0.50 to 0.01

Normal

-0.80 to -0.51

Abnormally dry

0.80 to 0.51

Abnormally wet

-1.30 to -0.81

Moderately dry

1.30 to 0.81

Moderately wet

-1.60 to -1.31

Severely dry

1.60 to 1.31

very wet

-2.00 to -1.61

Extremely dry

2.00 to 1.61

Extremely wet

= -2.01

Exceptionally dry

= -2.01

Exceptionally wet

 

 

A three-month SPI analysis reflects short to medium term moisture and can give an indication of available moisture conditions at the beginning of the growing season. A six-month SPI analysis reflects medium term trends in rainfall and is effective in showing rainfall distribution over distinct seasons as well as being associated with anomalous stream flows and reservoir levels, which takes longer to manifest itself than does agricultural drought.

The rainfall forecast for May-June-July 2015 is going for   Above Normal rainfall over Northern, Interior and Extreme South of the country and Normal rainfall along Coastal areas.

The table below shows the 3 and 6 months SPI for some stations across Belize.

 

 


 

Disclaimer

 

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service of Belize makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this statement. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

 

Next Drought Statement will be issued in the first week of May 2015.

 

If you have quires or comments please contact Climate Section at the National Meteorological service at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .