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Climat Section

 

Drought and Precipitation Statement

 

For Stations Across

 

Belize – June 2014 

 

Rainfall assessment of the country monthly average rainfall for June 2014 showed that all stations received rainfall below their climatological normal(1981-2010) as indicated in the Graph below.

 

 june 2014

 

 June 2014 rainfall against (1981-2010)

 

Station

June

Normal

% (Normal)

Libertad

53.2

207.8

25.6

Tower Hill

102.2

196.7

51.8

Rio Bravo

122.6

210.7

58.1

Philip Goldson Airport

20.1

218.6

9

Belize Zoo

161.8

271.6

59.6

Barton Creek

87

123.4

70.5

Belmopan

103.5

284.8

36.4

Pomona

136.1

344.5

39.5

Central Farm

100.4

171.7

58.4

Melinda

52.3

258.6

20.2

Savannah  

223.2

294

75.9

Punta Gorda

359.3

436.7

82.2

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

The Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI), developed by T.B. Mckee, N.J. Doesken and J. Kleist (McKee et al. 1993) of Colorado State University is an index that, if used carefully, can provide early warning of an extended drought period and aid in assessing drought severity. It can also provide similar information at the other end of the spectrum- extremely high precipitation. SPI is basically a representation of rainfall in units of standard deviation. Positive values indicate greater than median rainfall; negative values indicate less than median rainfall. Belize is now using this tool for early drought warning.

 

Table SPI classification (CIMH)

 

SPI Value

Category

Spi Value

Impact

-0.50 to -0.01

Normal

0.50 to 0.01

Normal

-0.80 to -0.51

Abnormally dry

0.80 to 0.51

Abnormally wet

-1.30 to -0.81

Moderately dry

1.30 to 0.81

Moderately wet

-1.60 to -1.31

Severely dry

1.60 to 1.31

very wet

-2.00 to -1.61

Extremely dry

2.00 to 1.61

Extremely wet

= -2.01

Exceptionally dry

= -2.01

Exceptionally wet

 

The rainfall forecast for July-August-September 2014 is going for Below Normal Rainfall for Belize and her Coastal waters. Below is the result from the SPI calculations for six (6) stations across Belize for August -September-October 2014.

 

A three-month SPI analysis reflects short to medium term moisture and can give an indication of available moisture conditions at the beginning of the growing season. A six-month SPI analysis reflects medium term trends in rainfall and is effective in showing rainfall distribution over distinct seasons as well as being associated with anomalous stream flows and reservoir levels, which takes longer to manifest itself than does agricultural drought.

 

SPI for July 2014               

Philip Goldson Airport (July 2014)                                      3 months (-1.38   -0.75)     6 months (-1.49   -0.94)          

Central Farm (Cayo)                                                        3 months (-0.19   0.17)        6 months(-0.93   -0.6 )

Tower Hill (Orange Walk)                                                  3 months(-0.26   0.23)        6months (-0.55 -0.08)

Melinda (Stann Creek (July 2014)                                      3 months (-1.88   -1.15)       6 months (-1.58   -1.01)          

Savannah (Stann Creek)                                                  3 months (-1.51 0.23)         6 months(-1.69   -0.08)

Punta Gorda                                                                    3 months(-1.32 -0.18)         6 months (-1.37 -0.22)

SPI for August 2014

Philip Goldson Airport                                                       3 months (-3.67 -1.89)       6 months (-2.12 -1.05)

Central Farm (Cayo)                                                        3 months (-0.88 0.41)         6 months(-1.06   -0.17)

Tower Hill (Orange Walk)                                                  3 months(-2.76 -1.06)         6 months (-1.09 -0.06)

Melinda (Stann Creek (July 2014)                                      3 months (-3.04 -1.43)     6 months (-2.13 -0.99)           

Savannah (Stann Creek)                                                  3 months (-0.92 -2.61)         6 months(-2.30   -0.89)

Punta Gorda                                                                    3 months(-0.09 -2.51)         6 months (-1.88 -0.53)

SPI for September 2014

Philip Goldson Airport (July 2014)                                      3 months (-3.6   0.72)         6 months (-3.04 0.12)

Central Farm (Cayo)                                                        3 months (-1.1 0.72)           6 months(-0.89   0.12)

Tower Hill (Orange Walk)                                                  3 months(-4.11 -0.77)         6 months (-2.22   -0.5)

Melinda (Stann Creek (July 2014)                                      3 months (-3.53 -0.9)           6 months (-2.88 -1.22)           

Savannah (Stann Creek)                                                  3 months (-4.0 -0.78)           6 months(-2.74 -0.3)

Punta Gorda                                                                      3 months(-3.74   -0.77)          6months (-2.34   -0.5)

 

 drought amjjas


 

Disclaimer

 

The information contained herein is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service of Belize makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of this statement. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.

 

Next Drought Statement will be issued in the first week of August 2014.

 

If you have quires or comments please contact Climate Section at the National Meteorological service at This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it .