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Back CUMULATIVE TEN-DAY RAINFALL JANUARY TO SEPTEMBER, 2004 FOR SOME STATIONS IN BELIZE, CENTRAL AMERICA
Fig. 1 Cumulative Ten-day Rainfall Jan. - Sep. 2004 at Consejo, Corozal district
Fig. 2 Cumulative Ten-day Rainfall Jan. - Sep. 2004 at Towerhill, Orange Walk district
Fig. 4 Cumulative Ten-day Rainfall Jan. - Sep. 2004 at Central Farm, Cayo district
Fig. 5 Cumulative Ten-day Rainfall Jan. - Sep. 2004 at Belmopan, Cayo district
Fig. 6 Cumulative Ten-day Rainfall Jan. - Sep. 2004 at Melinda, Stann Creek district
Fig. 7 Cumulative Ten-day Rainfall Jan. - Sep. 2004 at Punta Gorda, Toledo
Fig. 8 Monthly rainfall Jan.- Sep. 2004 at the Philip S.W. Goldson International Airport. Summary of climatic conditions in Belize for the period January to September 2004 A review of weather conditions to date indicates a high variability in the climate over Belize for 2004. The cool or winter period 2003-2004 was wet, with an abnormally high incidence of frontal systems becoming stationary over the NW Caribbean. This resulted in cold-air damming and over-running in the moist, northeasterly air-stream behind the frontal zones. The last frontal system reached Belize in early April. A marked reduction in precipitation was noted during April; however, the showery weather resumed in May as low level troughs in the easterlies and moist, unstable northeasterly currents (with support in the upper atmosphere), persisted across the NW Caribbean and northern Central America. The weather was so wet that the onset of the rainy season was indiscernible in late May and the first week of June. However, the rains stopped abruptly during the second week of June. Tropical waves in the easterlies, and upper level lows and troughs were weak and infrequent over the Caribbean. A strong and persistent Bermuda high was evident through most of June, July and August. This feature kept a strong NE-SW ridge of high pressure prevailing over the region. Subsiding air around the eastern periphery of the high, spread far southwestward into the western Caribbean; capping widespread convection over Hispaniola, Cuba and the NW Caribbean, including Belize. Consequently, rainfall remained minimal across the length and breath of Belize and soil moisture was well below field capacity. By the end of September, Libertad in the Corozal had only accumulated 30% of the normal rainfall for the period June-September, Central Farm and Spanish Lookout received about 40%, while the Punta Gorda Agricultural station had only accumulated about 65%.Figures 1 to 7 above are plots of the Ten-day mean and Ten-day 2004 cumulative rainfall for some stations in Belize. Apart from Consejo in the Corozal district, where the May – August 2004 cumulative rainfall was above the mean cumulative (Figure 1, rainfall surplus depicted as blue shaded area), all other localities experienced an ever increasing rainfall deficit from June to September, 2004 (yellow shaded area). At Melinda, the analysis indicated a moisture surplus during April to July; however, deficits were evident for August and September 2004. Figure 8 is a plot of the mean monthly rainfall and rainfall for 2002, 2003 and 2004. Rainfall during the Dry Season 2002 was about normal in comparison with the extremely dry and hot 2003 Dry Season. The 2004 Dry Season was wet, except for April during which rainfall was below normal. In retrospect Belize did not have a Dry Season this year. Most days were cloudy with some showers (See green line in Fig. 8). During the period June to September 2004, however monthly rainfall remained consistently below normal. The drought conditions gradually phased out during the last ten-days of September when an active tropical wave moved into the NW Caribbean and interacted with a trough in the upper reaches of the atmosphere. Additionally, the influence of the Bermuda High was being eroded by the frequent incursion of cyclonic vortices (tropical cyclones) across the SW Atlantic and Caribbean during late August and September 2004. Of interest during the 2004 Hurricane Season for the North Atlantic Basin was the sudden evolution of intense tropical cyclones during a period of about six weeks, beginning from mid-August through the month of September. A total of 12 named storms formed within this period. Seven of these became hurricane and 6 evolved into major hurricanes of Category 3 intensity or greater. Hurricane Ivan came within 326 miles NE of Belize City in September. The shower activity has persisted through the first ten-days of October 2004, and it is likely that the cumulative rainfall for October is nearing or surpassing the mean cumulative. An update will be forthcoming at the end of October. Courtesy National Met Service Ramón Frutos Agroclimatology NMS, Belize 12/10/04
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