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PRESS RELEASE May 30, 2008 Opening of the 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season
The 2008 Atlantic Basin Hurricane Season officially opens on Sunday, 1st June. It is forecast to be another active season with Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) in the order of 150 compared to a normal year that garners an ACE of around 96, according to Dr. William Gray and colleagues from the University of Colorado. The projection calls for 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes and 4 intense hurricanes. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center is expecting a 65% chance of an above-normal hurricane season, a 25% chance of a near-normal season, and only a 10% chance of a below-normal season. After allowing for uncertainties, the NOAA scientists estimate a 60%-70% chance of occurrence of 12-16 named storms, 6-9 hurricanes, and 2-5 major hurricanes of CAT III intensity or greater. These projections are based on the premise of on-going atmospheric and oceanic conditions that have favor above-normal Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995. This is referred to as the “multi-decadal signal”, which includes above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean, along with the lingering effects of a La Niña or ENSO-neutral conditions in the tropical Pacific Ocean. Most of the 2008 hurricane activity is expected during August through October, the peak months of the Atlantic Basin hurricane season. There is a good chance of 4-6 hurricanes moving across the Caribbean and the Gulf of Mexico this season, with 2-3 becoming major hurricanes. The National Meteorological and Hydrological Service of Belize will continue to monitor closely the Atlantic Basin for any early signs of an evolving tropical cyclone, and will quickly activate its hurricane emergency plan in the event of an impending threat to the country. It is very likely that the Belize Doppler Radar will be up and operational just before we move through the peak period of this year’s Hurricane season. The Doppler radar system will provide precise and timely ‘fix’ of any tropical cyclone or hurricane as they come within a radius of 200-400 km (125-250 mile), and will provide an added source of invaluable information on hurricanes to help in the decision-making, in order to safeguard life and property in a cost-effective manner. This year’s Hurricane season will be challenging when we consider the many other factors that the Belizean population has to contend with, including the increased cost basic food stuff and fuel. However, let’s keep hope alive, buy your emergency supplies a little at-a-time and always remain vigilant and prepared to act! R. Frutos Acting Chief Meteorologist Contact Numbers: |
