DATE:  TUESDAY 19TH AUGUST 2008 (EVENING)

THE WEATHER WAS MAINLY FAIR AND DRY THIS EVENING. SINCE NIGHTFALL, THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED JUST SOUTH OF THE BORDER. SURFACE ANALYSIS FOR 00Z SHOWED TROPICAL STORM FAY OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND AN INDUCED RIDGE EXTENDING THROUGH E'RN CUBA INTO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA. AT HIGH LEVELS, A HIGH CENTERED OVER THE N'RN BAHAMAS EXTENDS A RIDGE TO THE NW CARIBBEAN SEA AND BELIZE / E'RN YUCATAN. THE UPPER PATTERN IS SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT AT THIS TIME. THE SOUNDING SHOWED THAT THE AIRFLOW REMAINS RELATIVELY DRY AND SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE.

THE GFS IS SHOWING THAT THE MOISTURE WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW THROUGH THE NEXT 48HRS. TROPICAL STORM FAY WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS, AND THE RATHER SLACK PRESSURE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE OVER THE AREA. AT HIGH LEVELS, THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST TOMORROW, AND THE UPPER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE SLIGHTLY CONVERGENT OR NEUTRAL. THESE ALL SUGGEST CONTINUED WARM CONDITIONS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY.

THE MODELS ALL SHOW LITTLE OR NO RAINFALL FOR TONIGHT. THE GFS THEN SHOW A SLIGHT INCREASE OVER THE INTERIOR FOR TOMORROW, WHILE THE NAM, UKMET AND NOGAPS CONTINUE WITH LITTLE OR NONE. THEY ALL GO FOR LITTLE OR NONE FOR TOMORROW NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

FORECAST:  PARTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT AND MOSTLY SUNNY TOMORROW WITH THE CHANCE OF ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING.