Several agro-meteorological stations across the country are used to produce monthly rainfall and temperature forecasts. This is done by using the historical data observed at these stations, global and regional climate models, statistical models such as the Climate Predictability Tool (CPT) and Subjective inputs. Monthly forecast are considered sub-seasonal forecasts and the evolution of intra-seasonal oscillations play a significant role in these forecasts. One example of a sub-seasonal oscillation which carries significant weight in producing the monthly forecast is the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO).
Based on the above inputs, rainfall totals in February 2019 are expected to range from near normal amounts in the south, normal to slightly below normal amounts over central areas and below normal amounts over northern areas of the country. Maximum/daytime temperatures are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and minimum/nighttime temperatures are expected to be slightly cooler than normal during the month.
Rainfall amounts that are expected across key districts stations in February 2019 are as follows:
|Region||Station||Rainfall Amount (mm)||Category|
|North||Tower Hill||20-40||Below Normal|
|North||Rio Bravo||20-40||Below Normal|
|Central Inland Areas||Central Farm||50-70||Normal-Slightly Below|
|Central Inland Areas||Belmopan||40-60||Normal-Slightly Below|
|Central Coastal Areas||Airport||55-75||Normal-Slightly Below|
|Mountainous Areas||Baldy Beacon||85-105||Normal-Slightly Below|
|South||Punta Gorda||80-120||Near Normal|
The maps below show approximate rainfall totals that can be expected. The expected maximum and minimum temperatures are also shown. Users are advised that the amounts shown are only an approximation and are therefore cautioned not to focus on the exact value on the maps but instead to expect that the rainfall and temperature should be somewhere in that general range.
The information is provided with the understanding that The National Meteorological Service makes no warranties, either expressed or implied, concerning the accuracy, completeness, reliability, or suitability of the Outlook. The information may be used freely by the public with appropriate acknowledgement of its source, but shall not be modified in content and then presented as original material.
Forecaster: Gordon, Ronald
Last Updated: Thu, Jan 31, 2019 | 11:23 AM
The National Meteorological Service of Belize will continue to be the national authority which provides meteorological and climate-based products and services in order to protect life and property, contribute to the achievement of social, economic and physical well-being of the people of Belize.